The recent political events in Iraq and the precarious position that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – who happens to be an ally of Iran - is finding himself in, is pushing Iran to form new coalitions particularly in Iraqi Kurdistan. This new policy is clearly visible in the invitation that Tehran extended to Nooshirvan Mostafa, the leader of the Movement for Change and Birham Salih, Iraqi president Jalal Talibani’s deputy in the Etehade Mihani Kordestan (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK) and the visit that followed when the leaders met with senior officials of the Islamic republic.
The efforts of Massoud Barzani, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, to remove Nouri al-Maliki were thwarted at the last minute through the intervention of President Talibani which revealed the deep differences between the two main Kurdish parties over al-Maliki.
The issue for Iran of course is not limited to whether al-Maliki stays or goes but that had the prime minister been removed by Barzani, the latter would have emerged as a key player in the politics of Iraq and would have strengthened his position and influence, and that of the KDP, in the Kurdish Autonomous Region.
This is not something that PUK, as KDP’s rival, welcomes because it would have brought the party under greater influence of the Barzani’s group. So the PUK opted to back off from pushing to remove al-Maliki also freeing itself from the weight of Barzani.
The PUK has enjoyed friendly relations with Iran and even at times follows Iran’s advice. The KDP on the other hand pursues more nationalistic policies and is close to Turkey.
During the power struggle to remove al-Maliki, Turkey supported groups opposing al-Maliki and even accused him of being a dictator, something that Barzani has been broadcasting over the past few months.
On the other hand, Iran has opposed the removal of al-Maliki and Mostafa’s Movement for Change never joined Barzani against al-Maliki.
The non-support of the Movement for Change and those of the representatives of the PUK in Iraq’s parliament in efforts to remove al-Maliki, and the opposition of Talibani along with efforts of the KDP to weaken the PUK and the Movement for Change have displeased the two Iraqi Kurdish group (Change and the PUK), both of which have the same roots (Change is a splinter group of PUK).
There are factions within these two groups who want closer ties to each other and more distance from the KDP. They have cause to be unhappy with the KDP and desire a coalition between the PUK and Change.
All these events - Talibani’s age and illness, the issue of his successor in the PUK, the powerful position that the KDP finds itself in Iraq today, the need for new alliances in the political structure of Iraqi Kurdistan where the KDP is the acknowledged decisive powerhouse, and more recently the weakening of al-Maliki’s position - have all resulted in that Iran is now seeking to separate the two allies and the two long-time rivals and create a new coalition between the KDP and the Movement for Change.
To accomplish its goal, Iranian officials invited Mostafa and Birham to visit Tehran. But since the content of such talks always remain secret with no leaks to the public, one can only look at the positions of the groups and their reactions to political events to get clues as to what agreements may have been reached.
This is the first official trip for Mostafa to neighboring countries since the Change was born when it broke away from the PUK in 2009. The trip goes against the criticism that the group used to have against trips of other Kurdish leaders to neighboring countries.
While Mostafa was on his visit in Tehran, some media even reported that the Movement for Change was opening an office in Tehran, something that the group was quick to deny, indicating the sensitivities of such a development within the party and Kurdish politics in general. Change has strived to show itself to be the most patriotic group and prove its independence from the regional and neighboring countries.
At the same time, as Iran witnessed al-Maliki’s weakening position while his Kurdish opponents worked with other Sunni Arabs and even some Shiites and applied more pressure on the pro-Iran Prime Minister, Tehran is now seeking a new alliance.
If Change and the PUK do get closer, we may actually witness the end of the alliance between the PUK and the KDP. This would open up and create new alliance among the Kurds, both in the Iraqi Kurdish province and also in Baghdad. This may explain why Fazel Mirani, the secretary general of the political office of the KDP recently presented the Islamic group Kurdistan Islamic Union, the KIU, (Etehade Islami Kordestan) as a very close ally and called the two groups to be from the same body.
Talibani’s age and illness too are issues that make it into Tehran’s calculations because he has enjoyed close ties with Iran who has managed the balance between the various groups and factions inside Iraq, which includes even the PUK. His departure may bring about big changes in Iraqi Kurdistan creating problems for Iran’s influence in the region. So the invitation that Iran extended to Mostafa and Salih to visit to Tehran, may also be interpreted in the context of Tehran’s plans for the post-Talibani phase of Iraqi Kurdistan.
