Three hundred days into the house arrest of the leaders of Iran’s Green Movement and a political activist (a member of the National Trust Party – Hezbe Etemad Melli) has published a news item on Facebook site that deserves attention. As a member of Mehdi Karoubi’s headquarters, he asserts on the site that Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi and Mrs Zahra Rahnavard will be “possibly released” from house arrest. This news makes headlines in many news outlets. But what is the real story?
The Optimistic View
It is not impossible to assume the impossible. So let’s imagine that the imprisoned leaders of the Green Movement will be soon released following the “efforts of some prominent national personalities and associates of the former leader of the Islamic republic.” Let’s imagine that the regime determines to end the house arrest of the Green Movement leaders. The question will then be this: Will the end of the house arrest translate into “complete” freedom for them?
Will the end of their house arrest mean they will only be allowed communications and exchanges with a limited number of political leaders and their own family members or with anybody? Will they be allowed to engage in political activities in the same manner they enjoyed prior to their house arrest?
Even if they are given complete freedom, will this impact the Greens? With another round of parliamentary elections slated for March 2012, will the end of the Green Movement’s house arrest change the program of the Green Movement?
It is clear that any positive change in the situation of the Green Movement leaders – for whatever reason - will certainly be welcomed and a cause for joy. But what effect this will have on the GM is a different issue.
The GM charter says that the goals of the movement are, “the attainment of national sovereignty, and the implementation of free, healthy and fair elections.” It adds, “Sovereignty of people over their own destiny is an unwavering principle of the movement and elections are the most appropriate means to accomplish this. Therefore, the GM will continue its efforts to achieve free, competitive, unappointed and fair elections.”
In addition to the charter, a declaration issued by political prisoners, a letter signed by 143 political and civil activists, repeated statements by former president seyed Mohammad Khatami and the statements of the coordinating council of the Green Path of Hope all stress that the release of the leaders of the Green Movement is only one of the demands of the movement. The release of all political prisoners who have been arrested and imprisoned since the 2009 elections and the guarantees of political parties and activists, including the media, to freely operate are among the other demands of the movement and are as important as the release of the GM leaders. Holding free and fair elections is also among the key demands of the movement. Therefore in conclusion one can predict that even if the leaders of the GM movement are released from their house arrest, until the other demands are met the movement there would be no change in the position and demands of the movement. What may happen is that if the leaders are released, the movement will be reinvigorated to push for its other demands.
The Realistic View
While we would like to see the regime come to reason, we sense that its leaders have a different plan for dealing with the leaders of the Green Movement. The publication of the news that the GM leaders will be soon released may be part of this scheme. Everything considered, it appears that the regime wants to allow the GM leaders to have access to a small circle of its relatives or some small group of political leaders belonging to the regime.
In the current conditions of the country when even after the passage of two and a half years since the electoral coup of 2009, the leader of the Islamic republic remains the center of the debates on the Green Movement (a reference to ayatollah Khamenei’s recent remarks on the movement) and refers to the massive public protests of 2009 as a “sickness” or “illness” which could not have been resolved through normal political and security measures but which required a massive public response, and in view of the remarks made by the chairman of the Assembly of Experts on leadership Mahdavi Kani that ayatollah Khamenei believed that the reformists could run for the forthcoming elections only if they first publicly confessed to their mistakes, it is doubtful that a change has taken place in the way the ruling circles view the Greens or deal with them.
So it is not realistic to sit back and have faith in sanctions and international pressure or the ruling circles to come to reason. It is also not nationalistic.
I believe that in the time left for the March parliamentary elections, the Greens must seriously search for ways to deepen the Green protest movement (particularly through the use of social media). Now that an unprecedented majority of political groups are of the same mind in not participating in the upcoming elections, members and associates of the Green Movement must more than before come up with a plan to respond to the costly price that the movement and its supporters have already paid for their ideals.
