From about eight months ago and with the start of what later came to be called the “Arab Spring”, a significant part of the Arab world ranging from Tunisia to Yemen in the southern most point of the Middle East, we are witnessing change at a very fast pace. One after another, Arab rulers are removed from the scene like pieces on a chessboard and what is interesting is the nervousness and the contradictory positions of the international community in response to these events in the Arab world. Iran is not an exception in its positions and contradictions in this regard. And even though Iran is already isolated at the international level, thus miniaturizing its impact on the events in Tunisia and Egypt, it still remains a key player in other countries such as Syria, Bahrain and even Yemen. In this environment and in view of the pluralistic media that exists in the Arab world, coupled with the longstanding give and take between Iran and its neighbors, an examination of the Arab perspective at the role and policies of Iran towards the countries of the region, thus becomes twice as important.
Last week al-Hayat newspaper reported that in a behind-the-scenes deal, Iran forced Iraq to provide ten billion Dollars in assistance to Syria in addition to changing its policies towards that country, so that the latter can free itself from the crisis it has been struggling with in the last five months.
Quoting Shakir al-Daragi, a member of the Iraqi parliament, the newspaper revealed that last week on the request of Iran a delegation from the Iraqi al-Daawa party led by Abdul Halim al-Zahiri travelled to Iran where ways to provide assistance to Syria were discussed.
Al-Daragi said that Iran’s new strategy is to create a strategic axis between Iran, Iraq and Syria, through which because of a change in Turkey’s regional policies, Iraq would overtime replace Turkey with Syria as its neighboring ally.
Sources close to Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki have said that Maliki has recently cancelled a number of important business agreements with Turkey and that at Iran’s encouragement, Iraq will be the host to the country’s oil pipeline to Europe. Based on agreements reached between Tehran and Baghdad, Iraq would provide Syria with ten billion Dollars in oil and financial assistance.
Iran’s interference in Syrian affairs which prior to this had been reported sporadically and without any known sources became serious with the exclusive interview of Asharq Alawsat with Sheikh Khaled al-Khalaf, a leader of one of the largest Syrian tribes and a member of the national council who leads the Syrian opposition.
In his interview, al-Khalaf openly accuses the leader of Iran ayatollah Khamenei of engaging in plots to murder Syrian opposition figures. According to him, the Syrian National Council is in possession of a video film that shows Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) shooting at Syrian demonstrators (IRGC).
The involvement of the IRGC in cracking down anti government protests in Syria is not a new issue. The commander of a special Syrian military unit, brigade 15, who had refrained from following his orders to attack people and had then deserted his command, revealed through an interview with Asharq Alawsat that IRGC specialists armed with sophisticated gear roamed the streets of important Syrian cities such as Hama and Hamzi and informed Syrian security forces of the locations of satellite mobile phones that protesters used to disseminate their messages to the free world.
According to this Syrian army officer who has been with the country’s military for ten years the weapons used against the protestors are mostly new and have come from Iran, and these include electric batons and bullets that explode inside the body of a victim at whom they have been fired, completely blowing up the body.
A prominent Arab commentator, Hazem Saghieh who writes on evens in the Arab world, has written a piece in which he says that after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the debate that has sprung among Arabs is whether foreign intervention to free a country from a complex situation is essentially good or bad.
In reviewing the events in Iraq he writes, “Arabs soon realized that the main issue was not foreign intervention because after the fall of Saddam, Iraq faced two key issues: one was Iran’s unprecedented influence and the other terrorism and internal conflict. These two issues are also present in many other Arab countries. In fact, the record shows that after removing one difficult issue, Arabs become caught in their domestic problems and exhibit a tendency to shut their eyes to the foreign element and ignore it. Iran manipulated the created vacuum in Iraq because of this situation and tendency and through groups such as al-Daawa party and Muqtada Sadr succeeded in turning this vacuum into its favor.
According to Hazem Saghieh, the situation that Iraq fell into can be extended to other Arab countries as well. In this regard, we can see how the government of Iraq, on instigation from Iran, is busy supporting the Baath regime in Syria which it opposed for years and accused it of strengthening terrorism in Iraq.
Reuters on the other hand believes that this policy of Iran will soon result in even greater Iranian isolation in the Arab world. It writes that Iran has based its foreign policy on supporting Palestine and animosity towards Israel, both of which cannot be sustained without Syria’s Bashar Assad. At a time when the Islamic world led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Arab League are all unanimously calling for an end to the violence committed by the Syrian regime against the Syrian people, Tehran’s unconditional support for the Damascus will result in Iran’s isolation among Islamic countries and even its neighbors, in addition to its international isolation.”
Because of this possibility, a Lebanese commentator Mohammad Shamsuddin writes in a Lebanese newspaper, “There is no doubt that following Iran’s irrational support for Syria, Tehran will become even more isolated. And by examining what is reported between the lines, we can conclude that a major transformation is taking place in the region: Turkey is strengthening is role in the Middle East following a green light from the US and Europe. This new policy is nothing other than the re-implementation of the former “New Middle East” plan of the United States.
According to Shamsuddin, Turkey’s politicians behave in a manner as if they have received the license from the West to militarily intervene in Syria. But any action depends on first resolving the doubts that Western governments have in empowering Turkey in the region. He concludes that after the failure of the West in dealing with the Iranian crises, and its relative shortcomings in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West has decided to position Turkey at the forefront of the battle as the main player in the region, and the first place where such initiatives would begin would be regarding Syria. According to informed sources, differences between the military commanders of the country with Recep Tayyip Erdogan which resulted in their enmasse resignation is because he wanted the country’s military to intervene in Syria while the commanders view such a move to be in conflict with the interests of the country.
Another respectable commentator from Lebanon, Sarkis Naoum wrote a piece in al-Nahar titled, “Is Islamic Iran Unhappy?” in which he looks at Iran’s position in the region. It is generally believed that Naoum enjoys extensive and deep relations with security and political personalities in the US and travels there occasionally for access to first hand information. In the article, Naoum writes that Iran appears to be very concerned these days despite its apparent complete containment of its domestic opposition. Its concern can be categorized into four issues:
1-After the Sunni world fled from Iran out of fear, Turkey has played an undeniable role in the region and has turned into a serious rival to Iran. Earlier, Iran’s cooperation with the US in Afghanistan and Turkey had resulted in US extending its hand of friendship to Tehran. But Iran’s wrong policy resulted in a change in policy from Washington and Turkey succeeded in taking advantage of this and convinced the US that it battle Salafi terrorism better than Iran.
2-The launch of people’s opposition against Bashar Assad – Iran’s principal ally – and the failure of the Syrian regime to silence the opposition has put Iran in a difficult situation. Syria is the country that catapulted Iran into the Arab world, particularly Lebanon and Palestine. The alliance between Damascus and Tehran provided Iran with the opportunity to increase its influence in the region ranging from Iraq to Palestine. With the predictable fall of Assad’s regime the foreign policy of the Iranian regime will be completely shattered.
3-Despite Iran’s massive investment in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar Assad will result in the complete opening of action for the opponents of the Iranian regime in Lebanon. When that happens, it is possible that other countries will arm Lebanese parties - just as Syria did in the past – and thus confront the Lebanese Hizbullah or even engage in an Israeli war with Lebanon. In this scenario, with the absence of Syria, Iran will not be in a position to provide the smallest assistance to Hizbullah thus losing its important arm vis-à-vis Israel and consequently the West.
4-After the fall of Saddam, Iran made a huge investment for influence in Iraq: but we now see that Iraqi politicians are not willing to sign the agreement for the complete withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, despite Tehran’s boundless pressures. The government of Iraq too wants the US to keep a part of its forces in Iraq, something that is in conflict with the wishes of Iran. This indicates that by attempting to completely drive out the US from Iraq, Tehran is once again making a major blunder in its foreign policy as something like this is not going to happen under the current conditions but what will happen is a greater weakening of Tehran in the region.
A cursory look at the Arab news coverage of Iran during last week indicates that most countries and their analysts believe that the Islamic republic’s unconditional support of Bashar Assad’s regime is wrong and like a snooze, creates the ground for Iran’s unprecedented isolation even in the Islamic world and the Middle East.
