Let’s take a look at two recent surveys which recently appeared in newspapers affiliated to hardliners and conservatives.

 

In a news account that was also published by hardline Keyhan newspaper on May 5, 2009:

 

“The results of the latest opinion polls speak of Ahmadinejad’s lead in the presidential elections. As reported by ‘Alef’, in the opinion polls conducted on April 26^th in 32 large cities of the country, the question that was asked was who did the person want to be the presidential candidate. Ahmadinejad led the results with 44.9 percent, followed by Mousavi, Karubi and Rezaei, with 11.8, 1.7 and 0.6 percent respectively. And to the question of whom would they actually vote for, 53.6 percent ticked Ahmadinejad, 21 percent Mousavi, 3.8 percent Karoubi and 1.7 percent Rezaei. Alef is managed by Ahmad Tavakoli, attributes the source of this poll to be professional centers in the country adding that it is confidential and not publishable.”

 

Another news report was published on May 3^rd by IRNA, the official news agency of the government under the control of Ahmadinejad and Saffar Herandi, which read as follows:

 

“Based on IRNA’s opinion survey in which 1370 students from universities in Tehran were polled between April 26^th and 29^th, 51.4 percent of students said they would vote for Dr Ahmadinejad, 26.4 percent for Mir-Hossein Mousavi, 17.5 percent for Mehdi Karoubi, and 4.8 percent for Mohsen Rezaei.”

 

The important observation about both surveys is that the total number of votes for the 2 reformist candidates (Mousavi and Karoubi) is less that the votes for Ahmadinejad (i.e. about 25 vs. 54 in the fist poll; and 44 vs. 51 in the second). And according to both surveys, Ahmadinejad’s re-election to the presidency will be decided in the first round of voting (meaning that he will get more than 51 percent of the total votes).

 

But based on opinion polls conducted by non-government groups and the general dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad administration’s performance – which is obvious and has been reported as well – the fabricated results of the above-mentioned surveys are in clear disagreement with the realities of conditions in the country.

 

At a first glance, one may interpret these surveys to serve the purpose of boosting the morale of government supporters. But the more dangerous possibility is that the sources of these polls are really intending to manipulate the actual election results and are thus preparing the groundwork for their final announcement of a “victory.”  It is with this view in mind that the surveys gain meaning and call for deliberation, which also makes the calls for “supervising the voting process” and the efforts of civil groups to ensure that the elections take place in a healthy atmosphere even more important and urgent.

 

And as has been mentioned in the warnings of former president Mohammad Khatami, citizens and public organizations must strive have complete supervision over the elections process as much as possible and prevent the imposition of the will of non-voters.