No one in the present structure of the Iranian political system welcomes reformist Mohammad Khatami's candidacy for the June presidential elections. No one would even smile for the sake of appearances. Threats of assassination and murder and warnings regarding disqualification have already been made against him. Khatami has knowingly stepped into spot that is surrounded by his opponents. And to imagine that he could safely get out of the trap through the tolerance and goodwill of these opponents would be simplistic. However, the opponents surrounding Khatami themselves are surrounded by a larger population, meaning the Iranian people. Khatami could safely escape threats and attacks by his opponents only by relying on the people's power.
In his eight years at the helm of the reform government, Khatami spent most of his time and energy arguing and convincing the powerful rulers to accept minimal changes and reforms in the country, thus leaving only negligible energy to organize and mobilize his supporters - so little energy in fact that this lead to protests in the student community. Khatami emphasized the people's role in legitimizing the regime and touted principles of self-determination, but he was perpetually preoccupied with reaching an agreement with those in power.
Soon the Guardian Council may disqualify Khatami from returning to power. So now is the time to prevent and preempt that. In order to ensure that Khatami is not disqualified, the reformists must increase the costs of that act for conservatives. How?
Some of this responsibility falls in the shoulders of Khatami and his campaign team. This is a small part because Khatami's restricted resources could be used only to lobby certain top regime officials who influence the Guardian Council's decisions. It seems as if the conservatives know that Khatami would defeat any opponent, even with the current asymmetric conditions. Therefore, it is possible that they would first disqualify Khatami and then, as in the previous election (where the reformist candidate Mostafa Moeen was first disqualified and then qualified thanks to the Supreme Leader's "expedient" decision), qualify him, "indebting" him to the Supreme Leader. That course of events would inflict a huge blow to Khatami's credibility and drastically reduce his chances for attracting portions of the silent majority's votes.
However, the main responsibility for stopping his disqualification falls on other political actors and the social base supporting him. Using the potential powers of social and political forces that back Khatami, and this into a powerful and influential social presence, despite the other obstacles, is a mechanism that would increase the costs of Khatami's disqualification for the Guardian Council and conservative camp. Many instances of the effectiveness of this mechanism have existed in recent years. The latest instance is the retreat of the administration and lawmakers over the so-called "Family Support" bill (which took place in response to widespread protests by women against the bill's discriminatory content). Although the issue of the bill is not comparable in its importance and political weight to the presidential election, it nonetheless is a successful demonstration of the impact of social pressure on centers of power.
Khatami's political behavior and his response to and plans to address demands by social groups including teachers, laborers, women, students, the poor, etc. will play a significant role in enticing these groups to become active on the socio-political stage and back his bid for the presidency.
