The saying goes that those who have deep sleep are more hurried when they wake up. Iran's conditions have been "the most volatile" for a few decades now. There always is the feeling that the situation is very volatile and something must be done quickly. But these quick and fast actions have caused the situation to become even more volatile and again that slogan of "the most volatile conditions" is repeated to entice factions and forces to engage in actions that do not bear the desired effects. The tenth presidential election is among these so-called "determining" events, it is "the last opportunity." Once again, everyone is saying that "the opportunity will be lost" and that "something must be done quickly."
If we have a chance to take a look at the slogans raised before the ninth and eighth and seventh presidential election we will see or hear the same slogans, as if, in order to take action, Iranians need to lie to themselves or exaggerate. This kind of behavior is found similarly among the opposition, average citizen and the elite.
Is the tenth presidential election really "the last opportunity" or is it "one opportunity"? It seems as if there is much exaggeration in this slogan. It would be more desirable if political groups devise their electoral strategies in a measured way and without taking hurried decisions.
The reformists who served in the Khatami administration want to stay in power however possible. They have repeated this claim again and again in theoretical, political, complicated and even casual conversations. However, if reformists want to preserve their long-term interest in maintaining power, they must match their words with their deeds. At the least they must agree on a candidate who is able to cooperate and tolerate the opposing camp. Otherwise, they would undermine their own interests.
The issue of civil society, however, is different than that of reformists. Iranian movements do well in progressing. However, they fall short in instituting their achievements. In current conditions, every civil society organization or union must announce its demands so that the candidates reveal their plans to gather their support. Any candidate must provide detailed plans on how to deal with issues such the rights of women, ethnicities, and unionized workers. Using a female minister, minorities in key posts, recognizing the right to organize for labor, teachers, clerks, doctors, etc. can be the most minimal demands of the aforementioned groups from those in power.
In current conditions, no faction in the government deserves direct support unless its policies are aligned with the direction of social change.
What can be the approach of the opposition, which believes in political-civil society activism? It seems as if this approach must be governed by the following four principles"
1. Announcement of clear and detailed plans that will affect all forces including those in government, civil society, and others. If such a plan is announced civil society organizations will use it as a model and reformist groups in government find the courage to articulate their demands, because the opposition can reveal stances that government factions are unable to articulate in the first instance. For example, the opposition must clearly announce demands of the following sort: reliance on national not factional-governmental resources, logical relations with American and the west, recognition of clear right of women and minorities to serve in ministries and senior management positions without facing discrimination, etc.
2. Critique of government and administration's policies. The opposition must critique not just the current government, but also the performance of reformists who were in power for eight years. A critique of the ruling party reveals how successful this faction has been in implementing its supposed capabilities. Managerial deficiencies by reformists must also be clarified.
3. Independent participation in elections. The opposition must articulate its goals on a national level by providing a detailed roadmap. This kind of "identity-roadmap" can usher a new era for the opposition and replace "identity-ideal."
4. It is not conducive to interests of the opposition to support any particular candidate, but it can ask voters not to vote for a particular candidate. However, if a candidate provided a clear and detailed roadmap toward change, the opposition can, while maintaining its separation, provide conditional support.
The last word is that it is very dangerous for the opposition to fully support a reformist camp that is without an identity or different roadmap. This is because we must remain clear about our differences, unless similarities between the opposition's plans and a reformist candidate are very pronounced.




