Sunday, 30 Nov 2008
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opinion article

November 30, 2008

Obama, Pressure from Stronger Position

Azadeh Kian
Azadeh Kian

The impact of Barack Obama's election on Iran's situation and relations with the international ‎community is among the most important issues discussed by international experts following the ‎November presidential election in the US. ‎

In this connection, one thing is clear thus far: the Democratic President would have to quickly ‎outline his plans to negotiate with Iran - which he repeatedly promised during his campaign. ‎

Obama promised during his campaign to bring the U.S. troops home from Iraq within 15 months. ‎As such, the Democratic administration would have a little more than a year to impose the ‎minimal order necessary to remove the American troops from Iraq. Apparently, the Americans ‎do not doubt that such a feat is not possible without Iran's cooperation. In addition, prior to ‎pulling its troops out of Iraq, the United States must resolve another important issue, which is the ‎balance of power among rival forces (Shia and Sunni in particular) in that country. It goes ‎without saying that America's mostly Sunni allies in the region (especially Saudi Arabia and ‎Egypt) are seriously worried by the prospect of Iran's Shia influence in Iraq and Washington, ‎which shares their concern, needs to quickly engage Iran in making a deal to limit the borders of ‎Iran's influence in Iraq. ‎

Aside from considerations relating to Iraq, Obama has another very important reason to quickly ‎start negotiating with Tehran, and that is Iran's nuclear case. The Islamic Republic has been ‎required by Security Council resolutions to halt its uranium enrichment activities and, criticizing ‎the Republicans' policies, Barack Obama called for a new approach - through negotiations - to ‎convince Iran to halt its activities. Against this background, America and the world are already ‎waiting for the new president to prove the "change" that he promised in dealing with Iran and ‎quickly advance negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. This is because the Security Council ‎is due to make fresh decisions about Iran's nuclear case to comply with previous resolutions, and ‎how Washington approaches Iran would significantly affect the process. This is compounded by ‎the fact that America's allies in the region (especially Israel and also Arab countries) are deeply ‎concerned about Iran's nuclear activities and would not tolerate America's delay in taking ‎adequate steps to halt such activities. These allies have spent many months waiting for the ‎outcome of the United States presidential election and expect that the Democrats quickly begin ‎taking "actual steps" in dealing with Iran's nuclear case. ‎

The importance of this issue is raised by the fact that the Middle East peace process, which was ‎pushed forward with much difficulty and is now one of the new Democratic administration's ‎important foreign policy priorities, requires that Israelis be convinced to issue security ‎guarantees, which would not be attainable unless Israel's worries about the Islamic Republic's ‎intentions and nuclear activities are put to rest. The unavoidable precondition of such a ‎development is for Iran to halt enriching uranium. ‎

The totality of these conditions makes one expect Barack Obama to move quickly on starting ‎negotiations with Iran after officially taking over the White House. The first step in that process ‎would be to submit a clear offer to Tehran about the level and format of negotiations. ‎

As such, it seems like Iran would very soon be on the verge of making a grand decision - how to ‎respond to Obama administration's offer for negotiations - the result of which would leave ‎lasting marks on the region and relations between the two nations. ‎

Iranian officials cannot doubt that the Obama administration's negotiations with Tehran, even if ‎they begin without preconditions, would very quickly put Tehran in the position of deciding to ‎continue or halt uranium enrichment, and that moment it is necessary for Iranian officials to ‎make a decision in accordance with Iran's national interest and not out of ideological or ‎propaganda considerations. ‎

As such, the coming to power of Barack Obama in America is an "opportunity" for Tehran, ‎which could soon turn into a "threat" if it is not used in accordance with the country's national ‎interests. A glance at widespread reactions to Obama's election - whether in American public ‎opinion, European administrations and parties or Middle Eastern statesmen - reveals perfectly ‎well the Obama administration's international credit and backing, as compared to the Bush ‎administration's, in pushing forward its foreign policy agenda. ‎

This means that if Tehran fails to take adequate measures in response to Obama administration's ‎offer to negotiate to diffuse the nuclear crisis and normalize its relations with the international ‎community, the global pressure and imposition of sanctions on Iran would gain more momentum ‎under the Democrats than before. ‎

It is a pressure led not by a political despised by the public, like Bush, but by an extremely ‎popular president, like Barack Obama. ‎



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