The impact of Barack Obama's election on Iran's situation and relations with the international community is among the most important issues discussed by international experts following the November presidential election in the US.
In this connection, one thing is clear thus far: the Democratic President would have to quickly outline his plans to negotiate with Iran - which he repeatedly promised during his campaign.
Obama promised during his campaign to bring the U.S. troops home from Iraq within 15 months. As such, the Democratic administration would have a little more than a year to impose the minimal order necessary to remove the American troops from Iraq. Apparently, the Americans do not doubt that such a feat is not possible without Iran's cooperation. In addition, prior to pulling its troops out of Iraq, the United States must resolve another important issue, which is the balance of power among rival forces (Shia and Sunni in particular) in that country. It goes without saying that America's mostly Sunni allies in the region (especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt) are seriously worried by the prospect of Iran's Shia influence in Iraq and Washington, which shares their concern, needs to quickly engage Iran in making a deal to limit the borders of Iran's influence in Iraq.
Aside from considerations relating to Iraq, Obama has another very important reason to quickly start negotiating with Tehran, and that is Iran's nuclear case. The Islamic Republic has been required by Security Council resolutions to halt its uranium enrichment activities and, criticizing the Republicans' policies, Barack Obama called for a new approach - through negotiations - to convince Iran to halt its activities. Against this background, America and the world are already waiting for the new president to prove the "change" that he promised in dealing with Iran and quickly advance negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. This is because the Security Council is due to make fresh decisions about Iran's nuclear case to comply with previous resolutions, and how Washington approaches Iran would significantly affect the process. This is compounded by the fact that America's allies in the region (especially Israel and also Arab countries) are deeply concerned about Iran's nuclear activities and would not tolerate America's delay in taking adequate steps to halt such activities. These allies have spent many months waiting for the outcome of the United States presidential election and expect that the Democrats quickly begin taking "actual steps" in dealing with Iran's nuclear case.
The importance of this issue is raised by the fact that the Middle East peace process, which was pushed forward with much difficulty and is now one of the new Democratic administration's important foreign policy priorities, requires that Israelis be convinced to issue security guarantees, which would not be attainable unless Israel's worries about the Islamic Republic's intentions and nuclear activities are put to rest. The unavoidable precondition of such a development is for Iran to halt enriching uranium.
The totality of these conditions makes one expect Barack Obama to move quickly on starting negotiations with Iran after officially taking over the White House. The first step in that process would be to submit a clear offer to Tehran about the level and format of negotiations.
As such, it seems like Iran would very soon be on the verge of making a grand decision - how to respond to Obama administration's offer for negotiations - the result of which would leave lasting marks on the region and relations between the two nations.
Iranian officials cannot doubt that the Obama administration's negotiations with Tehran, even if they begin without preconditions, would very quickly put Tehran in the position of deciding to continue or halt uranium enrichment, and that moment it is necessary for Iranian officials to make a decision in accordance with Iran's national interest and not out of ideological or propaganda considerations.
As such, the coming to power of Barack Obama in America is an "opportunity" for Tehran, which could soon turn into a "threat" if it is not used in accordance with the country's national interests. A glance at widespread reactions to Obama's election - whether in American public opinion, European administrations and parties or Middle Eastern statesmen - reveals perfectly well the Obama administration's international credit and backing, as compared to the Bush administration's, in pushing forward its foreign policy agenda.
This means that if Tehran fails to take adequate measures in response to Obama administration's offer to negotiate to diffuse the nuclear crisis and normalize its relations with the international community, the global pressure and imposition of sanctions on Iran would gain more momentum under the Democrats than before.
It is a pressure led not by a political despised by the public, like Bush, but by an extremely popular president, like Barack Obama.





