Regardless of whether one supports former President Mohammad Khatami or not in next ‎year’s presidential race in Iran, there is no doubt that his participation (or not) will ‎tremendously impact the process of both leading camps, i.e. the reformers and the ‎conservatists.‎

But Mr. Khatami is today completely undecided about his participation in the race, and ‎this had put almost all the political forces in the country in limbo. His hesitancy is of ‎course understandable, but it is still necessary for him to overcome his uncertainty - say ‎within the next two weeks - and announce his decision. Otherwise, this situation would ‎deprive the existing limited opportunity available to the political groups, but it would also ‎make his participation or not irrelevant.‎

We know that every issue in this world has a capacity, a potential which when fulfilled ‎will lead to opposite results.‎

The whole issue of whether Mr. Khatami will participate in the forthcoming race or not, ‎too, carries an opportunity, which in practical terms cannot be prolonged for months. ‎With every passing day we see more contradictory news and comments about his ‎participation and not.‎

Furthermore, unlike earlier elections, the June 2008 presidential election is a unique event ‎which most political forces desire to impact and so any indecision by Mr. Khatami takes ‎away opportunities for them to seriously act on and make plans for.‎

I have previously suggested to Mr. Khatami to overcome his reservation and not ‎participate in the elections, because circumstances and times are not his, and because ‎should he win the race in the manner that he did in his previous race, nothing will be ‎accomplished except more problems for himself and his supporters.‎

Of course this decision is his to make, but should he decide to run, several developments ‎will take place in the pro-change and pro-reform camps.‎

The first is that if Mr. Khatami jumps in the race, then the necessary consensus for Mr. ‎Abdullah Nouri’s candidacy will not emerge and so he will for practical purposes not be ‎in the race. This will almost certainly eliminate the possibility of a peaceful and calm ‎political movement, at different levels of Iranian society, and so the elections will take on ‎a bureaucratic form, although they may not be completely free from public enthusiastic.‎

Under those circumstances, Mr. Mehdi Karubi who may insist on running as a ‎presidential candidate will be under strong pressure from reformist parties and I think ‎eventually with the intervention of the elders, he will remove himself from the race, ‎although one cannot bet on this outcome.‎

So Mr. Khatami will thus emerge as the only candidate for the majority of reformist ‎groups, turning the battleground into a bipolar race.‎

 

The impact of Mr. Khatami’s participation in the race on the conservatists too is ‎predictable, but the current indecision of this camp because of the uncertainty of Mr. ‎Khatami’s participation is not in the interests of reformists, particularly those whose main ‎concern is not the re-election of Mr. Mahmud Ahmadinejad, because any uncertainty ‎within the conservative camp is beneficial to Ahmadinejad, and not to his detriment.‎