Friday, 14 Nov 2008
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opinion article

November 14, 2008

Ahmadinejad Next?

Hossein Bastani
Hossein Bastani
h.bastani(at)roozonline.com

 

‎po_bastani_01.jpg

Former minister Ali Kordan’s ascent to the cabinet and then his fall from it is yet another ‎example of a well-known scenario in the Islamic republic of Iran: Heeding to change at ‎the worst time and in the costliest possible manner.‎

Certainly Kordan’s story and the costs the event imposed on Iran’s ninth administration ‎since the 1979 revolution to defend him is not the last of its kind or even the most ‎important event among similar acts. At the moment when President Ahmadinejad could ‎prevent the response to a misdeed by withdrawing support from a dirty lie, he chose to ‎present his “unconditional” support to the holder of the fake PhD degree. And when he ‎was invited to deal with the issue, he first denied the existence of the fraudulent degree, ‎and then described university diplomas as mere “pieces of paper”. And when the allies of ‎the administration suggested that the canny minister himself resign from his position, the ‎President encouraged him to resist. When the issue expanded to claims that Kordan’s ‎Masters and even Bachelor’s degrees were forgeries as well, Ahmadinejad again ‎defended his ally by claiming that many others too held fake degrees… And down the ‎road when the attempt to bribe the Majlis representatives who had supported impeaching ‎the minister was made public, Ahmadinejad again resisted calling the impeachment to be ‎unlawful and spoke of boycotting his participation in such an “illegal” meeting.‎

The president’s support remained unwavering throughout this event to the extent that it ‎had made some to wonder that perhaps he was sending his nominee to the clearly ‎revolting Majlis while enjoying the support of the leader of the Islamic regime. The ‎reality of course was something else. On the day of the impeachment of the minister, the ‎leader did not get involved to support Kordan. Kordan’s defense during the hearings ‎revolved around his being a chemical weapons war veteran, which he claimed he had not ‎reveled to anyone till then, that he was a good person because Rooz Online had said that ‎he was a “terrorist” and a “supporter of the clerical regime”‎ ‎, that he had a sick wife, and ‎that his children were very upset about what their father had been subjected to, etc. But ‎each of these defenses’ raised by Kordan were either laughingly brushed off during the ‎impeachment hearings, objected to or expressly rejected by the representatives. Still, with ‎the Majlis impeachment vote and the minister’s removal from his post, it has not become ‎any clearer why did the administration remains supportive of Kordan, who even initially ‎did not enjoy more than just 45 votes in the Majlis.‎

The impeachment proceedings have now ended and the result has been the most serious ‎defeat of the last 3 years for Ahmadinejad’s administration. This defeat however did not ‎result from the reformists or even moderates, but from its own former and current allies. ‎And through this event, not only did the president displease many of his allies - making ‎many angry - but it also brought about the most voluminous documented expose of and ‎discredit to the ninth government at the public level.‎

The president’s partisan behavior with the Majlis over Kordan, was clearly the result of ‎his grave mistake regarding the defensible nature of his Interior Minister. This ‎miscalculation was probably based on his belief in ayatollah Khamenei’s unconditional ‎support, and his hope to use it to ride the mounting challenge over his (former) minister ‎of interior.‎

But this event also places a serious issue for ayatollah Khamenei, in whom the President ‎relies to control his critics: Could unconditional support by the leader of the Islamic ‎regime of Ahmadinejad result in outcomes similar to what the controversial minister of ‎interior experienced? ‎

Up till now, one may believe that the leader of Iran believes that Ahmadinejad is the most ‎effective and capable authority to promote the goals of the leader of the regime and so it ‎is necessary to fully support him. It is also clear that despite the president’s unusual ‎behavior, the leader views it prudent to use his position to defend Ahmadinejad from his ‎enemies and rivals.‎

But here is the important question: Does Ahmadinejad enjoy the necessary requirements ‎for unlimited support? Does the President’s relentless drive to create tension, and new ‎and still newer enemies (even amongst the most inner circles of conservatives in Iran) ‎make it possible for any authority to throw in his support for a long period? ‎

Ayatollah Khamenei knows better than others that all it takes to remove Ahmadinejad ‎from power, is not to get engaged in the next presidential elections in his favor as a ‎means of controlling the elections. Would it not be better if they left him and his allies to ‎themselves, just as he did during the impeachment proceedings of Kordan in the Majlis?‎


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