When we speak about the unpredictability of the political behavior of Iranians, we do not mean ‎that the behavior of Iranians does not follow any laws of cause and effect; rather, we mean that ‎the factors determining the electoral behavior of Iranians are so many and, at the same time, so ‎personal that a full and complete examination of all of them is not possible. ‎

Therefore, because we do not have access to the totality of major and minor causes affecting the ‎electoral behavior of Iranians, their electoral behavior seems to us to be accidental - though the ‎essence of an "accident" is nothing but this. ‎

Conducting opinion polls is usually an effective way to predict the electoral behavior of citizens. ‎However, in my opinion, even if scientifically-designed opinion polls are carried out in Iran, they ‎will not be effective for several reasons. One such reason is the public's fear of providing ‎answers that are contrary to the regime's official policies. ‎

During the seventh Majlis election, my general inclination was that an absolute majority of ‎voters would refuse to cast their ballots, but that did not turn out to be the case. ‎

I had actually spoken to some people in cities and villages across the country and their main ‎contention was that they will not participate in the elections. ‎

On the election day, up until 4 o'clock it seemed as if my prediction would come true, because ‎until then not even a bird was seen in ballot centers in Tehran or other cities. But starting at 4 ‎o'clock, people, especially in the provinces, began pouring onto election enters. What was the ‎reason behind that? I do not exactly know, but I suspect that massive television propaganda ‎played a role in that. ‎

I suspect that people in many provinces were waiting to see how people in Tehran would behave ‎and to follow Tehran's lead. And they were following the electoral behavior of people in Tehran ‎through television networks. ‎

One must not forget that the rate of participation in the seventh Majlis elections in Tehran and ‎other major cities was about 30 percent. Television networks, however, bragged about people's ‎participation by airing footage of some of the more crowded ballot centers. ‎

In any case, it is clear that the same scenario will play out in the eight Majlis elections. ‎

Nevertheless, a strange feeling tells me that the electoral behavior of Iranians in the upcoming ‎election could surprise us all. The truth is that people's dissatisfaction with the Ahmadinejad ‎government, and conservatives in general, has reached its climax. Meanwhile, the opposition ‎has been unable to stir up the public's emotions toward participation. ‎

In the midst of this all, the implementation of the public morality project, which targets the ‎women and the youth, has enraged many in various social classes. This anger, together with the ‎decline in people's general living conditions, could combine to bring about a low voter turnout ‎compared to pervious elections. ‎

I have to add that I an in no way certain about the truth of what I am claiming! ‎