According to some news reports, former president of Iran Mohammad Khatami has asked ‎a number of senior political figures not to express their opinion about his participation at ‎the next presidential elections in 2009. According to these reports, the individuals he has ‎asked are those that were close to his administration in early 2000. This of course means ‎that while he had easy access to communicate his message to them in private, he did not.‎

The validity of this news is not certain, but if in fact Mr. Khatami is trying to hear what ‎others wish about his candidacy for the next presidential elections, as a journalist writer I ‎recommend that for once and for all set aside your doubts and refrain from entering this ‎field!‎

I have great respect for Mr. Khatami as a Shiite cleric and a cultural personality, but still I ‎do not believe that he has any of the qualities of a political leader, particularly at a time of ‎crises.‎

Mr. Khatami has a cultural and a somewhat philosophical foundation in his thoughts ‎while politics has neither found its real place in his structure of thought nor is important ‎in its hierarchy.‎

This is Mr. Khatami’s first barrier from becoming a political leader. The second issue is ‎that Mr. Khatami views certain issues to be equal in politics whereas they in fact are not. ‎This equality is not only undesirable in a political leader, but in fact wastes all his efforts ‎to promote his political agenda while making him defenseless in the face of his ‎adversaries. ‎

But to avoid being labeled pre-sumptuous I do not rule out that Mr. Khatami may be a ‎suitable president for a country that is completely stable and enjoys and institutionalized ‎structure such as Switzerland, but for a country like Iran which faces crises from all ‎directions, he is completely unsuitable for that position.‎

In other words, Mr. Khatami is a runner for a smooth path and not one laid with rocks, ‎which unfortunately is the case with Iran. ‎

Mr. Khatami succeeded in leaving his presidential post respectably after two terms and ‎thus continue to play a role in society as a respectable personality. But the concern is that ‎his return to a situation that is more complex and harder that before will not only ‎productive for Iranian society but will also destroy his image.‎

In fact under the conditions we are in, those who desire to put the crises we are in behind ‎us must put their complete support behind a person who not only recognizes the political ‎constituencies but also possesses leadership and management skills and at the same time ‎win the absolute support of the people and mobilize them.‎

If this does not happen, then we must expect even more crises and catastrophes to come, ‎and when that takes place, then Mr. Khatami cannot the person to guide us through ‎because he lacks the first two qualifications that I mentioned earlier, and he shall not have ‎the absolute support either.‎

I think Mr. Ahmadinejad is a one-term president who lacks the chance for a second term ‎both from the perspective of the regime and among the populace.‎

Still, nobody by any means can stop him from being a candidate for the presidency, ‎which if he announces will follow with all kinds of sensational revelations and ‎controversial debates, while none would bring any votes for Mr. Ahmadinejad.‎

What is certain is that Mr. Ahmadinejad will have serious rivals from the very ‎Principalist (Osoolgara) group to which he belongs and so the elections environment will ‎not be bipolar.‎

In such a landscape, Mr. Khatami may emerge as the presidential winner but only by ‎virtue of a Napoleonic vote, i.e. marginal victory. Since reformist groups routinely accuse ‎those managing elections of rigging the event and recognize a victory only if the ‎difference in the number of votes is massive, (so that any rigging or fraud is immaterial ‎to the results), it may be safe to conclude that Mr. Khatami is not going to get the vote!‎

I say Mr. Khatami will only get a Napoleonic vote because his candidacy in the ‎presidential race is not going to create social hype and much of the youth will not be ‎convinced to vote for him or to vote at all.‎

In view of the last two elections, reformist should not forget that by boycotting the ‎elections they will have the least impact on the process and no massive movement like ‎the Khordad 2 movement (when a coalition of 18 reformist groups massively defeated ‎their opponents in the presidential elections of 1997, bringing Mohammad Khatami to the ‎presidency) should be expected.‎

Who is that person who can unite and mobilize the masses is of course an important ‎question and what is clear is that the person is not unfortunately Mr. Khatami. What’s ‎more, he himself does not want to be that person either.‎