Immediately after the last trip of EU foreign policy tsar Solana’s trip to Tehran the concern heightened that once again the response to Europe’s proposal of a new incentives package to Iran would be rejected by Iranian leaders, opening the way for yet more sanctions against the country. This was based on the negatives of some leading conservative politicians who had publicly said that the new package was no different from its earlier ones that had been rejected.
But a week after Solana’s trip, a new tune began to emerge from Tehran. Official and unofficial sources close to decision-making centers in Iran made some positive remarks about the new incentives package, creating the hope that perhaps we were moving away from the past confrontational attitude.
Even though these remarks have brought forth a glimmer of hope of a more rational approach to the nuclear issue, this optimism can translate into reality only if the remarks were not the personal views of the officials, they are not intended to simply buy more time, as such a tactic would only delay the negative consequences, which would impose themselves on the country in even harsher terms in the future, and those who made the positive statements are aware of their impact. The acceptance of the incentives package has undoubtedly many positive aspects, even though it is clear that not all the provisions of the offer are in Tehran’s interest: the West, after all, is not a provider who sells his product without a price, particularly to a regime like Iran’s. So Iranian authorities need to be clear about what they need to do if they accept the offer and to present this to the nation.
While suspension of uranium enrichment is intended to last only for a short period in the offer, it is clear to everyone that this language is intended to provide Iran with the means to dodge the psychological pressure. This is so because a temporary suspension of a few months is not something that is worth any compromise by and for Europe and the West. In fact, the West does not trust Iran’s nuclear activities even under the supervision of the IAEA. So it is clear that it will not be content with anything short of complete enrichment.
This is precisely the point that Iranian officials must be cognizant of. Even if they can get the benefits in the incentives package with sufficient guarantee and end the sanctions against Iran by suspending enrichment, they will undoubtedly still be the winners of this game. But if unexpected events take over, then the picture must be completely re-examined.
So is it possible that uranium enrichment will completely stop? Only future will tell, although I personally am not very optimistic.





