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opinion article

July 27, 2008

Hopes For a New Nuclear Policy

Abbas Abdi
Abbas Abdi

Immediately after the last trip of EU foreign policy tsar Solana’s trip to Tehran the ‎concern heightened that once again the response to Europe’s proposal of a new incentives ‎package to Iran would be rejected by Iranian leaders, opening the way for yet more ‎sanctions against the country. This was based on the negatives of some leading ‎conservative politicians who had publicly said that the new package was no different ‎from its earlier ones that had been rejected.‎

But a week after Solana’s trip, a new tune began to emerge from Tehran. Official and ‎unofficial sources close to decision-making centers in Iran made some positive remarks ‎about the new incentives package, creating the hope that perhaps we were moving away ‎from the past confrontational attitude.‎

Even though these remarks have brought forth a glimmer of hope of a more rational ‎approach to the nuclear issue, this optimism can translate into reality only if the remarks ‎were not the personal views of the officials, they are not intended to simply buy more ‎time, as such a tactic would only delay the negative consequences, which would impose ‎themselves on the country in even harsher terms in the future, and those who made the ‎positive statements are aware of their impact. The acceptance of the incentives package ‎has undoubtedly many positive aspects, even though it is clear that not all the provisions ‎of the offer are in Tehran’s interest: the West, after all, is not a provider who sells his ‎product without a price, particularly to a regime like Iran’s. So Iranian authorities need to ‎be clear about what they need to do if they accept the offer and to present this to the ‎nation.‎

While suspension of uranium enrichment is intended to last only for a short period in the ‎offer, it is clear to everyone that this language is intended to provide Iran with the means ‎to dodge the psychological pressure. This is so because a temporary suspension of a few ‎months is not something that is worth any compromise by and for Europe and the West. ‎In fact, the West does not trust Iran’s nuclear activities even under the supervision of the ‎IAEA. So it is clear that it will not be content with anything short of complete ‎enrichment.‎

This is precisely the point that Iranian officials must be cognizant of. Even if they can get ‎the benefits in the incentives package with sufficient guarantee and end the sanctions ‎against Iran by suspending enrichment, they will undoubtedly still be the winners of this ‎game. But if unexpected events take over, then the picture must be completely re-‎examined.‎

So is it possible that uranium enrichment will completely stop? Only future will tell, ‎although I personally am not very optimistic.‎



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