“A threat exists. I expect you to be prepared to respond to these threats. Do not be caught off guard.”
This is the latest warning that came from the supreme leader of Iran, ayatollah Khamenei, and was targeted at “every single commander of the armed forces.” The chairman of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staffs General Hassan Firuzabadi also made this special announcement to the senior Passdaran and Basij commanders in this regard, thus not leaving any doubt that the leader has concluded that the country faces immediate military-security dangers.
Following ayatollah Khamenei’s words, the deputy chairman of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staffs Gholam-ali Rashid issued his own warning immediately, citing the “Fall of oil prices, the possibility of mischief by Israel and al-Qaeda, and possible social uprisings” as the three main threats facing the Islamic regime and stressed the third point in these words, “Incidents like the 18 Tir events (a reference to the July 8th 1999 student uprising that was brutally crushed by the security forces of Iran) could take place for which we must guard against.”
Last summer, General Mohammad Ali Jaafari, the supreme Passdaran commander had stressed that the possibility of a military attack by the US during the last months of George Bush’s presidency will increase, “In view of the conditions in the US in the next few months, the analysis of political, security and military experts is that the US is in a special situation and because of these may attempt to implement its threats.”
Apparently the period that is mentioned by Iranian leaders to contain the highest threats against the country is precisely the time we are going through now.
It seems that the recent repeated news about military exercises by Iran’s armed forces and the creation of new security agencies are in connection with this view and threat. Just two weeks ago, General Saeed Mojaradi, the assistant to Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staffs announced that a new workgroup comprising the government and the military had been created which was tasked with a political-security mission. At about the same time, Morteza Tamadon, the governor of Tehran province spoke of a new security council for the capital, the Security Safeguarding Council”.
The first question is this: Under the current conditions in view of the time left till the end of George Bush’s presidency, has the possibility of a US military strike against Iran really suddenly increased?
Commenting from the perspective of a political analyst, during the recent weeks no extraordinary evidence has popped up that would indicate a meaningful increase in foreign threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Unless of course the senior leaders of Iran have access to “secret” information which has not yet become available to journalists.
But there is another possibility as well, which is that the sudden and unexplained heightened military-security alert in the country is the result of analysis and information that is spread in the unofficial publications that is feed to the leaders of the regime. Experience has shown that these bulletins usually carry selected information to prove and justify pre-determined propositions, which at the same time strongly shape the analysis and views of the leaders of the regime.
Whether the recent military-security arrangements and instruments will be used in the near future to confront the foreign threats facing the Islamic Republic is of course not clear at this time, but according to the information that we posses, this does not seem very likely. Still, the point is that the military exercises, organizational changes and new preparedness levels have an immediate and a long term implication. The long-term one is related to Iran’s response to a possible military-security attack, as described above. But the immediate impact is the harsher crackdown of the potential “security threats” stemming from inside the country. The latter possibility was in the spirit of what General Rashid said and ranges from the reactions of hungry people who have been pushed to the edge because of economic crises (the “fall in oil prices” as he put it) to the “threats” that have existed in the past, exist now and will exist in future for the regime, meaning activist students (or in his words, “Incidents like the 18 Tir events could take place for which we must guard against.”)
It seems that it is in this light that at the start of a military exercise by the armed forces which took place in the presence of the President, Basij force commander Hossein Taeb announced “on behalf o13 million Basiji personnel” that the special units of the Basij would, in conjunction with security agencies, “undertake various measures such as effectively intervening in social upheavals.”
We do not know what picture about the “threats” is presented, and what counter measures are envisioned in the secret bulletins that are distributed to the senior leaders of the regime in Tehran. But we do hope that these last months (of the first term) of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s presidency will pass peacefully. Or, at least, with the minimum upheaval.
