To compare the Middle East to a keg of gun powder is no longer an exaggeration. I cannot predict whether this keg will explode or not, but I am certain that if it is not defused an explosion is certain.
What makes me so pessimistic is the continuation of the political impasse in Lebanon after the recent Arab summit in Damascus. Earlier I believed that to encourage the leaders of Arabia, Egypt and Jordon who came to the meeting, Syria would demonstrate softness regarding the crises in Lebanon and would in fact convince its partners in Lebanon to accept the presidency of Michel Suleiman as the first step in resolving the political crises.
But Syria preferred to keep its position regarding the Lebanese crises rather than the presence of the heads of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordon and other Arab heads of state, pushing Lebanon and the Middle East in general onto a dangerous point.
Perhaps a miracle will take place and events will move in the direction of tranquility and stability, but since miracles have stopped happening in this part of the world – and even if they did they would not have the familiar effects – the eruption of yet another crises is not unreasonable to expect. In this light, I think Israel’s civil-defense maneuver carries great significance particularly because of the recent remarks of Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, the Israeli minister of National Infrastructure. I have no doubt that through this maneuver the Israelis are preparing themselves for a major and extensive war, or at the least are taking such a possibility very seriously.
I do not know whether Israel is contemplating a surprise attack on Iran’s nuclear installations and the civil defense exercise is a step towards neutralizing the possible response of the Islamic Republic of Iran or that it is envisioning a confrontation with Hezbollah and possibly Syria before that.
What is strange to me is that the Israelis more than any other nation, take the words of Iranian leaders and particularly those of Mr. Ahmadinejad regarding them very seriously, while they call on other states to take these words seriously too. Iranian leaders more than any other leader in the world consider the words and plans of Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran to be insignificant, and ask others not to take them seriously too.
In recent years Israelis have been focusing their plans on Iran and I do not think there is anybody else in the world as determined and perseverant as them.
Under these circumstances, what should be most concerning to Iranian leaders is the apparent and clandestine alliance that exists between pro-US Arab states and Israel over Iran. The mysterious and mystifying death of Imad Mughniyeh, the commander of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the nature of the Arab response to it showed that from the perspective of key Arab states, Hezbollah, Iran and their allies are more dangerous to them than Israel., and that if Israel goes head to head with Iran or its allies for whatever reason, it will enjoy the clandestine support of those Arab states.
I think the recent confrontation with the Al-Mehdi brigade in Iraq to disarm it is not disconnected to these other events.
If I were an Iranian leader, I would look at the events in the region from a different perspective and would particularly desist presenting them in pleasing terms.
