This is the first experience in the Middle East when Arabs are revolting against their own, rather than against colonialists and the Americans. During the last ten months, three governments have collapsed, Yemen is embroiled in a civil war and Syria’s regime is in a serious Middle Eastern engagement struggling for survival, as many watch to see the impact of this huge event on Tehran.
Of the 300 million people living in Arab countries, 60 percent are younger than 25 years of age for whom the prospects of a better life, work, and welfare are not promising. About 40 percent of this massive population is unemployed. Which is why when a young Tunisian vegetable peddler set himself on fire in protest to the corruption and police pressure, his burns were felt across the Arab world and poured the sympathies of others overboard.
Some international organization, including the International Monetary Fund, had earlier warned that the continuation of the growing poverty, corruption, unemployment and backwardness of Middle East Arab countries would not continue without consequences. The US State Department too has expressed its concerns since two years ago about the developments in Egypt and some specialists believed that all the pieces for a total breakdown were all present. But the greatest fear was that the possible fall of Egypt would serve as a model and be copied across the entire Middle East.
Ten important issues should be considered in examining the future of the Middle East.
1-Despite the deep commonality of political issues and changes among a good number of Arab countries, what we are witnessing today is only the beginning of a crisis and the start of extensive albeit unknown changes in the region. Till today, there is still no clear picture as to what may finally emerge from the current changes in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Egypt. Perhaps the only definitive observation that one can make is that the Middle East shall never be the same.
2-Millions of Muslim Arabs desire changes in structures for which they have no blueprints. They lack an objective image of their own future and only know what they do not want. Just like Iranians in 1979 who did not want the Shah but at the same time did not know whether what they strived for would actually provide what Iran needed. The only pathway that can prevent the reemergence of despotic, corrupt, and totalitarian regimes and put in power demagogic and insane leaders such as Qaddafi and not repeat the past is to adopt democratic processes. Political parties, syndicates, NGOs, non-government media and a judiciary independent judiciary are among the tools of democratic regimes which in time bring about an open and free society in which there is a balanced distribution of power and which eventually bring forth a relatively social welfare state. Aside Egypt where political parties, organizations and ideas have room for some play, the other Muslim countries of the Middle East lack many of these foundations for building democracy.
3-Despite the absence of many necessary elements for democracy, the region is witness to the creation of an important necessary foundation for democratic relations: i.e., a united pulbi9c opinion among the 300 million Arabs. Undoubtedly the spread of the Internet, al-Jazeera television network, Saudi Arabia’s NBCs and the expansion of satellite networks have played an important role in shaping this phenomenon. As a result, it is probably very difficult now to prevent the various voices and opposing opinions from being heard or to silence them.
4-Political parties and Islamic movements opposing religious extremism will from now on play a more important role in Arab states. The best example of this are the efforts of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to stay in line with street protestors whose pains were economic-political not religious. At the same time, probably the worse catastrophe for an aspiring Middle East is that moderate Islamic parties that come to power through democratic processes fail to prevent the reemergence of former relations that existed in the ancient regimes. Should that materialize, then the Middle East will feel alienated and identity-less even more than before, something that is witnessed in the large émigré group of young Muslims from the Middle East and Africa who migrated to southern Europe.
5-A feature of the Arab revolt is the formation of security models by rich Arab countries to confront the regional uprisings. Saudi Arabia helped suppress the people of Bahrain by dispatching a military force to the country while carefully managing the crisis in Yemen from a distance. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Jordon too provided assistance to NATO operations against the Qaddafi regime. The expansion of such cooperation may build the foundation of a system comprising the rulers of the few powerful Arab countries against the democratic wishes of the people in the region.
6-Perhaps the best explanation that can be offered regarding the Arab Spring and uprising is that the people of this region have joined the dreams of other people around the world for political participation and a better life. So the current state propaganda where political parties are presented as evil, Arabs/Muslims do not understand democracy, democracy and religion are incompatible, or that Arabs cannot safeguard their democratic achievements cannot continue because from Africa to East Asia to Latin America demands for political participation and activism for a better life are now common and universal desires.
7-Contrary to expectations, the monarchies of the Middle East have responded more moderately and democratically than their republican counterparts to the political protests in the region. The King of Jordan dismissed his cabinet at the sight of the first wave of protests and did not violently confront the demonstrators and even promised new reforms, Sultan Qaboos of Oman dismissed his Prime Minister and the King of Morocco brought forward the participation of his people by holding a referendum on the constitution of the country.
8-The Arab Israeli conflict remains a priority for the people of the Middle East but Arab public opinion now stresses political participation and social welfare as is priority over anything else. This is why Syria’s leadership may not view a possible armed conflict with Israel as a very negative development because this shall shift the priorities of the unhappy crowds there to the war. In fact, all targeted rulers of the Middle East may view a conflict with Israel as a blessing; a blessing that can shift public opinion from their domestic plight to foreign threats.
9-Reaching an agreement between Palestinians and Israel will from now on be more difficult. The most pressing issue now for both Palestinians and Israel is the provision and maintenance of domestic stability. The Israelis under these conditions are not sure what the status of the peace accord with Egypt is or what the impact of the Syrian uprising will be on their continued occupation of the Golan Heights. Even the agreement between Hamas and Fatah suffers from the same uncertainty as the top priority for Palestinians is unity against events over which they have no control. The Israelis on their part will be patient and will not risk any action in the mid-term.
10-Whether the Arab spring will result in the fall of political regimes or not, the outcome of the current uprising completely depends on the behavior of the political rulers in meeting public expectations. Dictators may give way to ineffective technocrats or statesmen. In that situation, the Arab uprising will lose its momentum and the 300 million Arabs will once again become hopeless and disappointed over their future. This seems to be the condition of the Iranian reform movement.
The Arab uprising began with Egyptians and it is quite possible that it will be they who determine its future as well. How committed is the transitional government in Egypt in meeting pubic demands, how sincere will the judiciary be in dealing with the political-economic corruption of the Mubarak regime and how transparent will the upcoming elections be in the country all will play a decisive role in shaping the future Middle East. And just as Syrians copied the Egyptian protestors in their ways, Egyptian political reforms too will be emulated elsewhere. What is reformed in Syria will also impact the political system in Iraq which in turn will also change the configurations of Tehran.
How the Saudis are impacted by events in the Middle East, whether poverty and corruption is addressed in Iraq, for how long will Iranian rulers continue to crackdown on people and whether the reform movement remains intact all factors that influence the future of the region. Which is why predicting the future for the Middle East and the results of the Arab Spring uprising is more difficult than ever.
See: The Arab Uprising: Initial Observations
Council on Foreign Relations
