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October 4, 2009
Sadegh Zibakalam in Interview with Rooz:

Iran - G 5+1 Talks Will be Inconclusive

Respected Tehran University professor Dr. Sadegh Zibakalam argues that Iran’s nuclear negotiations with Europe and the United States will not be conclusive.  He explains, “Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has an ideological view of the Iranian nuclear program and does not take economic or national security considerations into account.”

Here are the details of his views.

Rooz: What effect does the revelation of the Qom uranium enrichment facility have on nuclear negotiations, especially since Iranian officials have claimed that the right to enrichment is non-negotiable?

Sadegh Zibakalam (Zibakalam):  Since the reelection of Mr. Ahmadinejad and the formation of his government, Islamic republic officials have adopted a new and different approach towards the Iranian nuclear case.  In Mr. Khatami’s era, the regime tried to manage the nuclear program in a manner that would not unite the world – at least the Western powers - against Iran while it made small advances.  

Rooz:  Is it correct to say that appearing to be fighting the US and imperialism is more important to Mr. Ahmadinejad and his Principalists ideologues than appearing to be advancing the nuclear program by any means?

Zibakalam:  Yes.  From Mr. Ahmadinejad’s perspective our nuclear program is simply an example of our struggle and Jihad against global imperialism and the West, ultimately the United States.  Therefore, the idea that we can reach an agreement that would benefit the Islamic republic while at the same time appeasing the West is an illusion.  

Rooz: In addition to the ideological nature of Iran’s nuclear program, the two elements of economic and national security interests seem to be important in this regard as well.  Apparently though, Iranian officials regard neither to be part of the national interest consideration.

Zibakalam:  The jest of your question is correct.  For the ruling Principalists, aside from the ideological considerations that I mentioned, the national security interest is important too.  It seems that some Principalists believe that achieving complete mastery of the enrichment cycle¾whether in Natanz or the new facility near Qom¾somewhat guarantees Iran’s national security.  Completing the enrichment cycle and acquiring the ability to enrich uranium above five percent translates to them that the Islamic republic of Iran has obtained the potential capacity to produce nuclear weapons in the future and whenever it deems necessary.  At least some Principalists think that that would force the enemies of the Islamic republic to set aside thoughts of attacking Iran forever.  We saw that they attacked Iraq and Afghanistan, and it is not far-fetched to think that they could attack Iran one day as well, while North Korea has nuclear capabilities, and if we reach that level one day the threat of a military strike would not loom over the country.  On the other hand, we have the case of Russia, among others.  The Soviet Union’s enormous nuclear capability did not prevent its collapse.
 


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