President-elect Obama’s selection of Hilary Clinton as the Secretary of the States has confused many political experts. Yet David E. Long a consultant on Middle East and Gulf affairs and international terrorism says that he believes President Obama will ultimately make the final decisions on American foreign policy.
David E. Long served in the U.S. Foreign Service from 1962-1993, with assignments in the Sudan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In an interview with Rooz online newspaper he said that diplomacy is the best course of action for U.S and Iranian relations. President–elect Obama will peruse this path. He also said that Hilary Clinton’s job as the Secretary of States will be to carry out the President’s decision, regardless of whether she personally thinks his decision is the best course of action or not. If she cannot do this, she should resign.
David E. Long is also the author of a number of books on the Middle East and terrorism is Saudi Arabia, including The Hajj Today, The United States and Saudi Arabia: Ambivalent Allies, The Anatomy of Terrorism, The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and The Culture and Customs of Saudi Arabia. He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the George Washington University.
Excerpts from the interview follow:
Rooz: What is the dominant trend in Washington with regards to dealing with Iran after the Bush administration?
David E. Long: President elect Obama has voiced on several occasions that diplomacy is the best way to go. SO, I assume that he would seek to carry out what he said. But this does not mean it’s going to be easy. There are no guarantees that negotiations and dialogues will lead anywhere, but they are the best alternatives available.
R: The major difference between Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama during the primary election was foreign policy, particularly their stances on dealing with Iran. How does the selection of Sen. Clinton affect Obama’s promise of negotiating with the Iranian government in order to address U.S. concerns?
D.E.L: When she becomes the Secretary of State, she will be in the cabinet of the president, and he will be the ultimate decision maker. So her job, and I’m not talking about personalities but about the structure of the job, will be to implement the policies of the administration. We have seen the way the president-elect seems to operating. The way he seems to be implementing policies of all kinds, not just those pertaining to Iran and the Middle East, is by listening and creating dialogues with many qualified people before making up his mind, rather than saying ‘this is what I want you to do.’ If he indeed consults with the Sec. of State, people in Congress, Sec. of Defense and the others, that is the ideal way to precede, and his method should give us all some degree of hope that he can get things started. However, there are many obstacles in the way of negotiations, both in Tehran and here.
R: How can Sen. Clinton just implement Obama’s policies while she has strong opinion towards major foreign policy issues?
D.E.L: If she, or her senior staffs have strong disagreement with the administration in the White House, it’s their duty to bring up those differences and say, “We don’t agree with this and here is the reason why.” But if he listens to those and says, “Ok, I hear you, and I know where you are coming from, but that still is going to be the decision”, then it’s her job to carry out Obama’s decisions, regardless of her personal opinions.
R: Regarding the problems in the Middle East, from Afghanistan to Palestine, can the new administration come to a compromise with Tehran that would allow Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program?
D.E.L: Let me put it in more abstract terms. There are things that the Iranian regime wants to do for a variety of reasons, and there are things the Iranian regime has to do because of its political, social and economic situation, which is particularly in bad shape due to the global recession and drastic drop in oil prices. On the other side, there are things that we want, like an end to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, which is a world-wide threat. Then, there are things we need, like security throughout the Middle East. As we have seen, an instable Middle East can easily become breeding ground for international terrorism. In all these things it’s not all or nothing. We are trying to start a dialogue with Tehran and reach a compromise that will benefit both American and Iranian interests. Is that possible? Yes, but it is going to be very difficult, because of other issues in the region and the years we have spent fighting with each other. If you ask me if I think the Obama administration will succeed, I would honestly say I don’t know. But I do think by trying it is giving us the best chance of success.
R: There are speculations and signs that Obama administration is willing to put economic pressures on the Iranian government in order to bring the Ayatollahs in Tehran to the negotiation table and ultimately compromise. However, the history of economic pressures on the Iranian government shows that Iran does not respond positively to such pressures and tactics, simply because they run the fight based on ideology not the economic cost-benefits. How might this path affect U.S.-Iran relations?
D.E.L: Among the options are negotiations and an increase or the decrease in sanctions. However, nothing good can happen if we just keep the status quo. The Iranians know their country is in bad shape. Someone needs to take a step, and I believe he [Obama] will take that first step. The question is whether the Iranian government is as willing as Obama to take the first step. I believe Iran is. Both sides will be talking about all of their issues, but, ultimately, there should be mutual desire to talk about mutual interests in their relationship, which will not be easy.
R: Can the Iranian government’s policies for supporting the stabilization of Iraq, reviewing its nuclear plan, and showing a interest in cooperating in the Middle East peace process, be seen as the first possible steps?
D.E.L: It has to be a two way street, just like it is in the Bazaar. If you want to sell something for too much money, nobody will buy it. You have to have both sides feel that it is in their interests in each segment of the discussions in order to come to an agreement on it. We have been in war of words since 1980. There is an understanding on both sides that it negotiation is something worth trying.
