In a talk with Rooz, professor Azadeh Kian, a sociology teacher at Paris University, discussed the features of the most recent report by the UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency. He believes that in order to prevent the fourth round of sanctions against Iran, Tehran should present a serious proposal for the continuation of the talks. Here are the details.
Rooz (R): Can the latest report of the IAEA be the basis for another UN resolution against Iran?
Azadeh Kian (AK): Yes. What the US and some European countries such as France and Germany want is more pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is why they are raising more international sanctions against the country. Unfortunately these pressures and sanctions have a very detrimental effect on the Iranian economy and society. Now it is not only the US and European countries that confront Iran, but a group of world countries desire greater pressure on Iran. But while these sanctions have not succeeded in seriously weakening the Iranian regime, they do hurt the economy and society, particularly workers, the educated middle class, owners of private entities and in general all those who contribute towards the future of the country.
R: There is this view that the ideas that Mr. Ahmadinejad is pursuing are because of the high oil prices. Is it possible that he would still pursue these policies if the price of oil fell?
AK: Since Iran does not have the necessary infrastructure investment, a fall in oil prices may lead to chaos. This is because in recent years, the energy that has been spent on some priorities such as the nuclear issue has taken away attention from investment in other structural and foundational issues. I have always defended Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy, just as other countries have it too, but Mr. Ahmadinejad’s postures on Israel and the radical Palestinian groups (as if Iran is more Palestinian than Palestinians themselves) has lead to the weakening of Iran’s position, regionally and internationally.
R: What effect will the possible election of Tzipi Livni from the Kadima party, as the next prime minister of Israel, have on international politics towards Iran, in view of her support for Israeli talks with Syria and the Palestinians?
AK: If that happens, all important countries in the world will support her. They will support the policy that Israel should talk with Syria and the Palestinians. This will seriously impact Iran’s position. In recent years and contrary to the policy pursued during Khatami’s administration that we are not more Palestinians than the Palestinians themselves, the Iranian government’s policy towards Palestine is such that we have an even more radical posture than Hamas. These things have led the international community to lose its patience with Iran and at senior levels distrust Iran’s current nuclear policy. The Islamic republic believes that it has another three to four months until the US and Israeli elections are over. But the reality is that time is flying much faster and even these three to four months can work against the national interest of Iran.
R: Could the third visit of Mr. Ahmadinejad to New York result in new remarks that could herald a new round of talks or display a strong determination by Iran to resolve the ambiguous aspects of the issue?
AK: I do not personally think he can say anything really new in New York. With the Iranian presidential elections approaching, I think that the nuclear issue has turned into an election issue, and this struggle will continue. One should note that the policies of the current administration in Iran have been very detrimental to the country’s economy, and all statistics confirm this. The only tool that is left for him is the nuclear issue and I think that Ahmadinejad’s faction has continuously strived to maintain its power vis-à-vis its domestic critics by depending on international and regional tensions.
R: In view of the threats and opportunities for Iran, what options are available to Iranian officials? Particularly as the threat of a military strike against Iran is getting stronger than before.
AK: Contrary to the views of some Iranian leaders who view these threats as empty slogans, I think differently. By sending a representative to the Geneva talks, the US wanted to demonstrate that it was serious about talks with Iran. But under the new conditions, if the moderates come to power in Israel and Iran still does not build the trust of the international community over its nuclear policy, this crisis may get worse. While Israel will never attack Iran’s nuclear installations without a green light and cooperation from the US – I doubt this and it is impossible – under the conditions that I have described, international public opinion will increase against Tehran and Iran will not be able to stop the situation from getting worse by depending on countries such as Venezuela.
R: In view of the picture you have just described, how can a deterioration of the situation be prevented?
AK: If we want to stop the situation from getting worse, then we must embark on confidence building and send a strong message about serious negotiations with the international community. To do that, the Iranian side must first accept to freeze the uranium enrichment activities for a few months. Concurrently, Tehran must declare its specific expectations from the international community. The question really is whether the Islamic Republic desires serious talks and a normalization of relations with the US or not. The same question must also be asked of the US. It appears that the answer of both parties so far has been a no, which is why we are at a deadlock. What has happened now – particularly in the last one or two years – is that the positions of the European Union are now in line with those of the US and Iran cannot maneuver in the differences between them.
