Amir Mohebian is a prominent journalist and ideologue of right wing politics in Iran. Rooz spoke with him about the tenth presidential elections next year, the ninth administration’s role in uniting conservatives, and the potential candidates on the right. Here is the text of the interview.
Rooz (R): Mr. Mohebian! It seems like there are divisions among conservatives as there were during the 1384 (2005) presidential elections. What is your analysis of the current condition of conservatives?
Amir Mohebian (AM): Conservatives have essentially had somewhat different positions on all issues but have been able to manage the differing viewpoints during elections, although sometimes this management has been successful and sometimes it has not been. In the upcoming elections, however, the situation is somewhat more complicated; because the Principalists (a name ruling idealogues have given to themselves) have been able to take over the government after a long time.
R: Has this administration’s performance been beneficial to conservatives or not?
AM: The performance the administration has had in the past 4 years is such that it can be criticized and questions can be asked about it. On the other hand, the administration that is in power under the conservative banner is undoubtedly an ideologue administration. As such, it does not reflect the viewpoints and ideals of all conservatives.
R: Does that mean the situation is not favorable to Principalists?
AM: The present situation demonstrates that the Principalist camp is attempting to somehow control this movement and the possibility exists that the Principalists will introduce more than one candidate – meaning a candidate other than Mr. Ahmadinejad – in the upcoming election.
R: Are differences among Principalists over tactics and methods or are they more fundamental and strategic?
AM: Even though the administration of Dr. Ahmadinejad has been very active with many conservatives in agreeing about its strengths, it also has some weaknesses. One is that it has been unable to satisfy the entire right wing camp, and through some projects has won over only the smaller groups rather than the large ones or the elite inside the camp. So there is the possibility that they may all reach the political decision not to allow a final consensus to emerge around Mr. Ahmadinejad as the lone candidate. However, much depends on how events unfold. Indeed, Mr. Khatami’s presence would help for a larger part of the Principalists to rally around Mr. Ahmadinejad.
R: Are you suggesting that Mr. Khatami’s candidacy would help unite Principalists?
AM: Yes, this possibility is there. However, it is possible that even with Mr. Khatami’s presence other candidates in the conservative camp may run for presidency and disrupt the unity of conservatives.
R: At this point, who are some of the figures you view as potential candidates or whose candidacy has been discussed?
AM: One of the figures on whom there has been investment is Mr. Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis. The conditions and news reports received, however, show that Mr. Larijani is not inclined to run very much. Tehran’s mayor, Mr. Qalibaf, is also in a good position. There are other political figures that are being considered. Among certain conservatives, former interior minister Mr. Pourmohammadi is discussed. Also, labor minister Mr. Jahromi is discussed in certain right wing circles. On the other hand, some individuals in layers close to the right wing discuss figures such as Mr. Velayati and Mr. Rowhani, whose politics falls somewhere between the right wing and Mr. Hashemi. Mr. Velayati leans closer to the Principalists whereas Mr. Rowhani is closer to reformists.
R: How much has the behavior of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s advisors and affiliates affected the disunity among conservatives?
AM: Some of this behavior and at the same time voicing certain beliefs which run counter to the spirit of the Principalist movement has led to the emergence of certain doubts some of which have grown to become serious issues among Principalists which may even leave their marks on the elections. In any case, it is possible for conservative candidates to compete against one another in a preliminary round after which the person who has the greatest chance of victory in the Principalist camp would be chosen as the final candidate on the eve of the elections and in a survey, with other candidates serving in his cabinet.
R: What, in your opinion, would be the result of the elections if conservatives fail to unite around one candidate?
AM: Mr. Ahmadinejad enjoys a favorable social position, although in my opinion he has lost a portion of his forces. However, the clear point is that the possibility of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s victory in the first round has diminished and the election would most likely go to the second round, a run off. We like both candidates participating in the second round to be from the conservative camp. Other scenarios, however, are being analyzed as well.
