Sadegh Zibakalam is a well-known Tehran University professional in political science. He spoke with Rooz about commander Jaafari, the commander of the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps (PRGS) about the possibility of a US attack on Iran. He believes that what the commander says is precisely what the American neocons wish Iranian leaders to talk abut. Read on for more.
Rooz (R): In an interview with Jame-Jam daily, commander Jaafari spoke of the growing possibility of a US attack on Iran and listed Iran’s options as a response. In your opinion what is the message of such talk?
Sadegh Zibakalam (SZ): I still believe that the possibility of a US attack on Iran is very slim and it is not true that the likelihood has increased. The only thing that has perhaps changed is the new Group 5+1 proposal to Iran, which can be interpreted as an ultimatum. If Iran rejects the package, it does not mean that Iran will be attacked militarily, but that they will move towards getting another resolution which will most likely be more threatening than the previous ones with more sanctions.
R: Is the path that Iran pursing not similar to Iraq’s in 2002?
SZ: Perhaps it is. But we must consider that the US will be having its elections in November and if Obama, the democratic candidate, wins the elections, we will see changes in US regarding Iran. So the issue facing us is what will take place between now and November. I do not believe that an attack by the US will take place against Iranian nuclear installations.
R: Commander Jaafari has spoken about Iran’s reprisal measures, including closing the Straits of Hormuz or hitting at Israel. What are the consequences of such remarks?
SZ: Saying that we would attack Israel with our long-range missiles if the US attacks us is precisely the kind of language that American neocons wish Iranian authorities to raise so that they can further mobilize the world against Iran.
R: If the likelihood of an attack are very small, then what is the purpose of these remarks?
SZ: Part of it is to distract attention from other issues. In countries such as Iran, when domestic problems and issues grow, there is an effort to divert public attention to foreign threats.
