Hossein Mohammadi
Mohammai1363@gmail.com
Mohsen Sazegara is a known Iranian political activist and journalist. Rooz spoke with him about conditions in Iran and issues facing it, including the forthcoming presidential elections in June 2009. He believes that, “If conditions remain as they are today, these military men will easily put Khatami aside. They already have a vote creating machinery in place at the Ministry of Interior.” Here are the details.
Rooz (R): How do you analyze the forthcoming elections?
Mohsen Sazegar (MS): Politics is the game of power and power either comes from people and different groups inside it, like it does in democracies, or from weapons and force, money or wealth. In the power struggle that is going on in our country today, the armed forces enjoy the support of the leader and hold the power, and they have contained the reformers. At the same time they have money and weapons, and control the Ministry of Interior, the Guardians Council, the Judiciary, and the state-run radio and television network. So at a time that they hold all the power there is no reason for them to allow anybody to control them, unless the other side is a powerful force as well.
R: Does the opposing side have such power?
MS: The only thing that can force these people to distribute power are people. The only force that can force Mr. Khamenei and the military-security band to retreat is people. But people on the other hand have two issues, and I mentioned them earlier. The failure of the reforms have demoralized them. So any group, including the reformers, that wishes to take advantage of the presidential elections for this purpose - which is in fact a good place to start this change and to bring people to the front which can make many things possible - must succeed in catching the attention of the public and convince them that their efforts are fruitful.
R: Do reformers believe in this?
MS: The only thing that I see is that reformers present this argument that it may be true that Khatami may not be able to accomplish anything, but at least he is better than Ahmadinejad. This view has failed during the last 5 elections and I doubt things will change with these personalities.
R: Let’s review the presidential candidates, starting with Khatami.
MS: The problem that Mr. Khatami has is that he has absolutely no effectiveness. He is not even saying anything decisive about whether he will be a candidate or not, while he is not proposing anything new either. What I mean is that he is not telling people that if he is elected he would so this or that or make some changes. The only argument that is presented in defense of him entering the race is that he is better than Ahmadinejad, and that he would, for example, stop the disgraceful name that Iran is getting in the international community, or that he does not spread extremism. These are true and in these respects Mr. Khatami is much better. But I do not think that these arguments will create a social tsunami in his support. If conditions remain as they are today, these military men will easily put Khatami aside. They already have a vote-creating machinery in place at the Ministry of Interior.”
R: What about Mr. Karubi?
MS: Mr. Karubi has one virtue which is that when he works and speaks, he is open and transparent. But he stands somewhere between the reformers and the hardliners and is generally nor recognized as somebody who wants to change things, and we have not heard anything serious from him.
R: What about Mr. Nouri?
MS: Mr. Nouri is very different from the other two individuals. He has shown that he does not accept the ruling despots. And he has paid the price for it by being imprisoned. In his earlier activities too he has shown that he is a strong person. But if I wanted to evaluate him, there are two issues that I know: I have not heard any of his ideas or views aside what is in the published defenses during his trials. He has not said anything clear and transparent about his theories. The second point is that he has colleagues with whom he has worked in the past who are very close to him but who have the same problems that other reformers have. If he wants to be identified with those same people, then he will have a problem. Because his friends and colleagues are not recognized to be very deep reformers.
