Naser Irani
In Abbas Abdi's view, there are no prospects for reconciliation between the student movement and the government. Students are dissatisfied with the government's performance, while the government fears that student protests may lead to a domino effect. Prominent dissident Abbas Abdi thus concludes that if the clergy enters the scene as an independent force, the balance of power will be maintained and the conditions that are conducive to the empowerment of domestic radicals will vanish.
Commenting on the student movement, Abdi believes that the situation may advance into one direction or another at this point. Increasing intimidation of the student movement may radicalize the students more so than before; alternatively, it may pacify them compared to before.
Abdi says, "It is clear that dissatisfactions will increase. However, this does not simply mean that there will be more demands, because there aren't any prospects of meeting those demands either."
Abdi adds, "I don't understand what is meant by the term 'student movement.' If we use the name 'movement' to refer to any happening, then the word becomes devoid of its meaning. The reality is that we do not have a student movement. We do not have a political movement either, though conditions are more ripe than before for the emergence of one. It is not accurate to call certain behaviors a 'movement' when the people responsible for those behaviors are not able to even hold a simple meeting inside their campus. I have been a part of the student movement and know what a student movement must consist in. We are seeing a similar thing with the teachers' protests, and also among the public. However, certain necessities must be met before mass dissatisfactions is turned into a movement and begins to flow like a river."
Abdi continues, "The government is concerned with a domino effect… Right now, if something happens, it happens quickly and secondly, the consequences will be unpredictable. Officials are very sensitive about inflation, even though they cannot solve it, although they have brought it under control to some degree; had they not done that, the situation would have gotten much worse than it is now. Every sane person knows what it means to lift the tariff on sugar, something that they have done in order to control inflation. They think, correctly so, that increasing inflation can trigger any uncontrollable development…. In Iran any protest can quickly spread into other fields. The smallest problem can unleash a crisis. Labor protests could spread to student and teacher protests. There were no more than 10 or 20 teachers during the teachers' first few protests, but gradually 30 to 40 thousand people showed up to protest in front of the Majlis building. Certainly, a portion of them were not teachers. In other words, a lot of other people who were not teachers came to the fore because they found no other venue to vent their demands. It was because of this fear that the government suppressed that gathering. They were certain that they would have failed if the gathering had spread to 200 or 300 thousand people. From this point of view, preconditions for a political movement have been strengthened in Iran, but an actual movement no actual movement has formed yet."
