ROOZ :: Englishtag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//22008-05-12T00:02:01ZEnglish ArticlesMovable Type 3.33Soheil Asefi Barred from Continuing Educationtag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367262008-05-12T00:59:37Z2008-05-12T00:02:01ZFollowing Imprisonment for Contributing to Rooz
“My latest university registration was suspended on Herasat’s [university security’s] orders and the university’s Herasat has not provided me with any explanation or legal justification for why I have been barred from continuing my education.”
“My latest university registration was suspended on Herasat’s [university security’s] orders and the university’s Herasat has not provided me with any explanation or legal justification for why I have been barred from continuing my education.”
These are the words of Soheil Asefi, a contributor to Rooz, who was released on a 100 million toman [about 100 thousand U.S. dollars] bail after spending more than 60 days in solitary confinement at the ministry of intelligence’s detention center – Evin Prison’s Ward 209. He was forced to quit journalism and contributing to Rooz after being released from prison.
This young journalist decided to complete the few remaining semesters of his university education in the hopes of a brighter future. However, he has been deprived of this right too. He has this to say: “The head of the university’s Herasat, which cancelled my registration, told me that my registration is conditional on obtaining a permission letter form the ministry of intelligence or Revolutionary Court. I have followed up with the Revolutionary Court several times since eight months ago, when I was released from prison, but they are not responsive at all and have not even allowed me to state my case for them.”
Asefi adds, “The head of the university’s Herasat, who insisted that the order was issued by higher officials and that he is just following orders, announced lately that the decision was not handed down from above and that he is personally responsible for the decision.” The head of the university’s Herasat who had initially agreed with the conditional registration of this student, now has cancelled his registration without providing an order, legal justification, or any written explanation, and no organization or institution is responsive regarding Soheil Asefi’s situation.
Asefi said, “In a meeting that I had with my attorneys regarding this matter they stated that, based on norms and rules, a student’s suspension must pass several filters, but despite the meeting of the disciplinary committee to make a decision on my status, the head of the committee announced that they have nothing to review and deferred my case to the university’s Herasat.”
This young journalist has been barred from continuing his education even though according to Articles 2 and 43 of the Islamic Republic’s Constitution, and also Articles 26 and 27 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and Article 19 of the U.N. Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, education is a right. According to Article 570 of the Islamic Penal Code, it is a crime to deprive anyone from the right to education and punishments have been set aside for it. Nevertheless, no one is responding to Soheil’s demands and no court is willing to hear his case.
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Stocks of Steel Companies Plummet tag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367292008-05-12T00:07:37Z2008-05-12T00:09:36ZWith Rash Remarks of Industries and Mines Minister
Kourosh Salimi
The rash remarks of Iran’s industries and mines minister, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, caused unease in Tehran’s stock exchange and led to a sharp decline in stocks of steel companies in the past two days. ]]>
Kourosh Salimi
The rash remarks of Iran’s industries and mines minister, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, caused unease in Tehran’s stock exchange and led to a sharp decline in stocks of steel companies in the past two days.
The Fars News Agency reported that in a meeting last week with managers of industrial companies, Ali Akbar Mehrabian warned that companies affiliated with the ministry of industries and mines must cap their prices and no company is allowed to behave contrary to the government’s policy.
Mehrabian, who seemed to be passing down the president’s orders to managers of state-owned companies, explained further that sometimes state-owned companies may post losses due to price cuts, which is not a problem, because the national interests are more important and inflation must be curbed.
The stock market decline was due the business community’s fear that, despite prior promises to companies participating in the stock exchange, the government might interfere in the purchase and sale of steel companies.
According to Shahab news, the consequence of analysts’ worries and negative reaction of investors was predictable: heavy decline in stocks of steel companies in stock exchange; and naturally, the decline in major stock indexes. In the first two days of this week, the Tehran stock exchange index fell by 38 points, hovering around 1,000.
The report adds: “Following his appointment to the ministry, Mehrabian promised to promote industry and help solve problems of industrial companies currently traded in the stock exchange. However, not only have investors not seen the minister’s practical and committed support yet, but the minister easily and single-handedly destabilized 40 percent of the 49.6 billion dollar Tehran stock exchange and worried thousands of investors.”
Shahab news reported that Mr. Mehrabian has perhaps overlooked an important economic principle: “investors in the stock market buy and sell stocks to maximize profits, not to abide by the officials’ ethical slogans. In these conditions, it is obvious that any rash remark, rumor, or news that could cast doubt on profitability of companies would unleash an immediate capital flight from the stock exchange and bring down stock prices.”
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Protesting Government Interference in Sunni Seminaries tag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367282008-05-12T00:04:47Z2008-05-12T00:07:12ZLed by Zahedan’s Friday Prayer Leader
Shahram Rafizadeh
The Friday prayer leader of Zahedan’s Sunni community issued yet another protest to the government’s interference in the Sunni community’s religious affairs, citing the passage and implementation of a new memorandum by the High Council for Cultural Revolution curtailing the freedom of Sunni religious seminaries. ]]>
Shahram Rafizadeh
The Friday prayer leader of Zahedan’s Sunni community issued yet another protest to the government’s interference in the Sunni community’s religious affairs, citing the passage and implementation of a new memorandum by the High Council for Cultural Revolution curtailing the freedom of Sunni religious seminaries.
The new High Council for Cultural Revolution’s memorandum, titled “Bylaws of Sunni Religious Seminaries Planning Commission,” has added to discontent among the country’s Sunni minority. According to an official report by the Islamic Republic’s News Agency, the “Bylaws of Sunni Religious Seminaries Planning Commission” has 10 Articles and 4 Addendums. According to one article, from now on Sunni religious seminaries will be managed and run according to the Bylaws of Sunni Religious Seminaries Planning Commission and under the guidance of representatives appointed by the supreme leader.
In addition to Sunni clerics that have openly criticized the new measure, the Friday prayer leader of Zahedan’s Sunni community yesterday addressed members of the High Council for Cultural Revolution, “The High Council for Cultural Revolution is responsible for governing the country’s schools and universities. Sunni clerics are responsible for overseeing the education of the Sunni community and Sunni schools and seminaries.”
Molavi Abdolhamid identified religious beliefs as the red line for Sunnis and Shias, noting, “No individual, group or government should cross these red lines.”
Molavi Abdolhamid added, “We announce to head of states in which Sunnis have a majority that they should not interfere in religious customs and practices of Shias, and in places where Sunnis are in minority, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, no one should interfere in the religious affairs of the Sunni community.”
He noted, “The Constitution has afforded us this right and we respect the Constitution… The Constitution is the backbone of the state and nation, and no one is allowed to act above the Constitution. The responsibilities of every institution have been outlined in the Constitution. Because the Constitution has given us members of the Sunni community complete religious freedom, we are free to run, manage and promote our religious seminaries.”
The Friday prayer leader of Zahedan’s Sunni community added, “Religious schools and seminaries are independent and have their own curriculum, just as Shia religious seminaries are independently operated without government’s interference.”
He also called on Islamic Republic officials to refrain from “politicizing religion,” adding, “The government is in charge of political and economic affairs and providing security for the country’s citizens. Religion and beliefs must not become politicized; rather, the government must become religious.”
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A Lie for Security Reasons?tag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367272008-05-12T00:02:07Z2008-05-12T00:04:33ZNews of Arrest of Shiraz Bombing Perpetrators Published, with Delay
Rasa Ghazizadeh
After repeated statements by security officials last month that the April 13th Shiraz bombing was not terrorist related, now suddenly through separate interviews, security officials are claiming they in fact are.
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Rasa Ghazizadeh
After repeated statements by security officials last month that the April 13th Shiraz bombing was not terrorist related, now suddenly through separate interviews, security officials are claiming they in fact are.
In this regard, Entekhab news website wrote, “In a meeting with the senior members of Rahpooyan Vesal group and the surviving family members of the “martyrs” who died in the Shiraz bombing, Interior Minister Mohammad Pourmohammadi announced that the perpetrators of the terrorist bombing had been arrested.” The report continued, “Pourmohammadi asserted that the reasons for not officially announcing the news were certain security issues.” The official IRNA news agency wrote that Pourmohammadi had said, “This explosion was an act of sabotage and the work of the enemies of the great Iranian nation and the holly cursed individuals under the pretext of monarchism and with the support of countries that claim to be defenders of human rights, of national rights and of anti-terrorism.”
Minutes after the publication of this news, an interview with the Minister of Intelligence of Iran was presented to ISNA, Fars and IRNA news agencies according to which the minister declared that the Shiraz “bombing had been carried out by a terrorist group connected to Western countries, particularly Britain and the US”. Referring to the absence of an announcement on the issue in recent weeks, Minister Gholam Hossein Ejei said, “One of the problems in making a news announcement on the event and the delay in the announcement was because of efforts to detain the suspects. But with the commencement of activities of intelligence bureaus in a number of provinces, such as those in Fars, Tehran and Mazandaran, the principal perpetrators of this bombing have been identified and their foreign contact has been arrested.”
Further accusing foreign elements in this regard, Ejei said, “The sabotage group which had been connected to a number of Western countries, particularly the UK and the US, was involved in terrorist activities in Iran for some years. And even though we sent very good information about the group to these countries through our Foreign Ministry indicating that the group was a terrorist group, they did not confront the issue and even supported the group.”
Minutes after the publication of this news, ayatollah Dastgheib, an influential cleric from Shiraz announced that officials had to apologize to the Iranian nation because they had earlier denied that this bombing was terrorist related. Entekhab news website went event further and while publishing Dastgheib’s remarks called for the resignation of the governor, governor general and other senior officials of Fars province (where the bombing took place) because they had repeatedly in the past denied that terrorist were behind the event.
Soon after the bombing, the governor general of Shiraz went to the site and rejected any possibility of terrorism and promised to arrest the perpetrators. By summoning cleric Anjavinejad to the governor’s office, other provincial officials asked him not to take any sides on the issue. At the national level too, many senior officials had denied that the bombing was a terrorist event and attributed the explosions to “negligence” on behalf of the Rahpooyan group that had organized the gathering at the mosque.
The explosion took place at a mosque in Shiraz which killed 14 individuals and left more that 200 injured.
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We Must Fulfill Our Global Resposibilitiestag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367252008-05-11T23:54:37Z2008-05-11T23:59:17ZAhmadinejad’s Unpublished Speech:
Monday night, Iranian state TV broadcasted a dated speech by President Ahmadinejad which had not been broadcast until now but which some analysts believe is in fact the launching of his premature campaign bid for the second presidential term..
Monday night, Iranian state TV broadcasted a dated speech by President Ahmadinejad which had not been broadcast until now but which some analysts believe is in fact the launching of his premature campaign bid for the second presidential term..
This speech was made a month ago when Ahmadineajd spoke to clerics and theological students in Mashhad. In the talk, the president told his audience, “A few days ago, a revolutionary cleric said to me,‘They say that you claim to be in contact with the twelfth Shiite Imam (believed to be in occultation)’to which I replied “When did I make such a claim?” But despite his denial, the president immediately dwelved into his talk at Columbia University in New York and said, “Prior to my talk, they (university officials) had put an eight minute pre-recorded message on the university’s telephone system which bombasted the Islamic republic of Iran so that whoever called the school would hear it … after my talk, everyone from the doorman at the UN to other officials congratulated us!”
In his talk, Ahmadinejad also said that American invasion of Iraq to gain access to that country’s oil was merely a “superficial reason”, adding that real reason was, “They had realized that a divine intervention at the global level was about to take place which would cut off their reach.” Ahmadinejad’s reference of course is to the belief among Shiites that the twelfth Imam (a messianic figure believed to be in occultation since 1,140 years ago) would return one day and implement justice on earth, something that according to Ahmadinejad, the US had come to realize and thus decided to invade Iran, probably in an effort to prevent ‘the divine intervention’ of Imam Mahdi!
In this dated newly published speech in Mashhad, the head of Iran’s government makes indirect references to Hashemi Rafsanjani and says, “This plotting against the government that he is engaged in … the leader of this movement said at a meeting that they can do whatever they wish, but we own the oil and the banks, and we will defeat them … when you pull a string fifty protests will rise and thousands begin to support the criminal, thus preventing the implementation of justice”.
At the end of the speech, and without even mentioning the multitude of existing problems facing the country under the current conditions, Ahmadinejad again mentioned the administration’s efforts to facilitate the return of the missing Imam and said this about the future plans of his government: “The last phase has begun. We must immediately bring domestic events in Iran under control and attend to the revolution’s global responsibilities.”
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Mr. Khamenei! You are Making a Mistaketag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367102008-05-11T00:58:57Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZNooshabeh Amiri
nooshabehamiri@yahoo.com
In his most recent public speech, Mr. Khamenei has said, “After a passage of thirty years since the victory of the Islamic revolution, the advance of the Iranian nation, particularly the youth, towards the ideals and their progress in this regard has picked up further momentum and it is this fact that has further frustrated the enemy of the people.”
In his most recent public speech, Mr. Khamenei has said, “After a passage of thirty years since the victory of the Islamic revolution, the advance of the Iranian nation, particularly the youth, towards the ideals and their progress in this regard has picked up further momentum and it is this fact that has further frustrated the enemy of the people.”
Except for the words “thirty years”, the rest of the sentence is “not right”. Mr. Khamenei is making a mistake. Please note that I am not saying he is “lying” for such an accusation against Mr. Khamenei will be construed as “an insult to the leadership.” Furthermore, the leader of the deprived of the world, as the leader of the Islamic republic is referred to, cannot be and must not be a liar because a liar as an enemy of God (a Quranic verse), although we the common people have heard that a liar is an enemy of God from these very individuals.
So where are the mistakes or errors in Mr. Khamenei’s sentence? Let’s begin with the term “victory” and ask: Does victory simply mean that the Shah left and the Islamic republic replaced him? If the answer is a yes and the only issue that matters is that the Shah left, as did Googoosh (a popular pop singer in the days prior to the 1979 revolution), then of course Mr. Khamenei is right, as are all others who equate personal achievement with achievement for Iran. Definitely one died and the other inherited. The Pahlavi Foundation turned into the Mostazafan Foundation and the 15 Khordad Foundation, etc as one person was replaced with another. The only difference between the individuals however is that the new ones own high-rise buildings and ammunition in Iran, and their wives have flooded the streets of Vancouver, new York and Dubai with the Islamic hijab wrappings to “protect the principles of Islam”, which of course is victory for the clerics and the hajjis (Muslims who have performed their necessary pilgrimage to holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia).
If, on the other hand, the term victory of the Islamic revolution means the attainment of its ideals and goals, or at least moving in that direction, then the term is open to disagreement.
Without being negative, let’s look at the facts. Yes, it is true that inflation is a global issue. But is the manifold increase in oil revenues for a country also lead to an increase similar increase in oil revenue for all the countries of the world? Or, is the presence of a President who mistakes the Rial for a Dollar also a global phenomenon? Is the existence of 15 million people in the country who live under the poverty line also a global phenomena? Note that 15 million is the figure that is presented not by the enemies of the Islamic regime but by President Ahmadinejad’s deputy for planning affairs, while experts put the figure at 35 million people. Please name me a country whose income has tripled during the last three years while the number of its citizens living below the poverty line has multiplied similarly. There is only such country.
Show me another country whose boasts of freedom, liberation and leadership of the world are so massively propagated around the whole world, while the country witnesses an attack against its media every 36 hours. Show me another country whose religious leaders – who in unison support the “monolith” administration – collectively complain about hyper inflation, where pro-state media call the President “Unthoughtful who disturbs public order”, yet the only person who by law is designated to be the arbitrator beyond factions and parties says, “I absolutely do not accept this negativism that some people constantly repeat.”
Show me a country that claims to be Islamic with Islamic values where a speaker says this to its Basijee volunteer defenders, “Through the creation of a class structured society some of its members acquire interests that they must then theorize , and unfortunately an atmosphere has been created in which where the righteous have become villains while the corrupt have become virtuous, which required a response with a similar intensity”, or that “a soft over throw is taking place by pseudo-idealogues”, while the highest authority in the country calls on everyone to vote for that very group that is labeled “pseudo-idealogues.”
Mr. Khamenei! I am against Velayat Faghih (i.e. the rule of the clerics). I believe in the separation of the state from the church. I think of all things that Islamic republic has done during these “thirty years” to uproot the faith of this “Islamic nation” – as you call it – to such an extent that for decades and decades to come faith will not be resurrected in this country. So is suppressing me, or others like me and violating my basic human and civic rights, and those others like me, merely because of our different views, an indication of the rapid progress towards the utopia that you have been promising? Is threatening me and others like me to death, to have our throats cut and heads placed on our torso, signs of your utopia?
Even if we forget ourselves, is forcing a former member of the Majlis (Iranian parliament) to write a repentance letter for participating in a sit-in in comprising supporters of Velayat Faghih in the same Majlis the very same ideal progress that you have mentioned? Is expelling the protégés of the Islamic republic towards Mohammad Khatami because of their ideas (not followed up by any action) an indication of the world that you are inviting others to help you build?
Do you also “absolutely ... not accept” the condoning of the actions of the privileged in the Islamic regime and allowing them to violate the honor of Iranian women in medieval prisons? Are the youth of this country who have chosen “the moment” because of every day pressures and have taken to drugs and light up a moment of their life the very same “youth” that refers to in your talk? Can a land in which once the smallest loan or debt was an indication of moral standing, but today a brother treats his own brother like an enemy, be the environment for idealism and principles?
If your response to these questions, and many other similar ones, is negative then come forward and let the public judge them. Come and by holding free elections, for once give those very individuals who you say constantly advance “negativism” a response they deserve. And since despite these people, there are many who chant “We are all your soldiers, Khamenei”, so what is the fear for? Let them (the supporters) come and show their camaraderie. And also let the youth and me and us come to. You spend so much money; why not now not spend to legally put the opponents in their due place. Is arriving at the truth and not making the same old mistakes that may be construed as “lies” not worth the cost of such an endeavor? Let law demonstrate who is truly “frustrated”.
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An Experience for Next Electionstag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.367092008-05-11T00:58:47Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZHossein Bastani
h.bastani@roozonline.com
Only a year remains until the next presidential elections in Iran and if one would like all the things that took place in the recent parliamentary elections not to be repeated, then there is no choice but to begin a discussion on an acceptable elections strategy right now.
Only a year remains until the next presidential elections in Iran and if one would like all the things that took place in the recent parliamentary elections not to be repeated, then there is no choice but to begin a discussion on an acceptable elections strategy right now.
One may safely assume that with the existing official executive agencies, supervising bodies and other organizations involved in elections in Iran, the atmosphere in which the next presidential elections will take place in 2009 will be similar to the environment in which the recent parliamentary elections took place. So I would like to continue this discussion by presenting a direct quote from my previous proposal and predictions regarding the recent parliamentary elections because the points are as valid for the next elections, albeit with some minor adjustments.
As the day of the presidential elections approach, the first thing that will be of concern to political groups will be the process of vetting the candidates (examining the qualifications of the candidates). In this light, let me quote what I had written earlier in this regard as consultations were under way for the confirmation of the candidates to the Eight Majlis.
“The discussions that are currently under way with the election supervisory bodies aimed at securing even the slightest conditions under which reformist candidates can participate and compete in the voting will all be futile. Here is the reason: Essentially, one cannot expect any positive results from a discussion in which one of the parties does not take the other party seriously. What has repeatedly taken place in all the recent elections in Iran is that despite all its protests over the elections process, the reformist faction has eventually actively participated in the elections. Therefore there isn’t the slightest incentive in the conservative faction to be flexible in the talks with a party whose hands are tied up and who will participate in the elections no matter what conditions are prevalent within the framework that is determined for the competition.” [“Participation without the Red Lines?” Norooz, 12 February 2008]
Based on these calculations, I came up with a number of reformist candidates that would be allowed to run in the elections prior to the event, which has now turned out to be correct. “In view of the extensive disqualifications that have been made over the reformist candidates desiring to run for the Majlis, one can at best expect a minority of 40 to 50 individuals – the majority of whom owe their confirmation to run to the fact that the hardline opponents were seen as the demarcation line that identified those that should be disqualified – to make it to the Majlis, which in any case would not make any difference to the direction of events in the Majlis.” [“What Must Happen for Them Not to Participate?”, Emrouz, 27 February 2008]
I believe that even the current reports that former President Khatami is reconsidering continuing political activities was predictable. This is what I wrote then: “In view of the mind-set of the former President, his premature utility in the elections may easily lead to his decision to completely stay out of politics because of the violations in the elections.” [“Do not Utilize Him”, Norooz, 23 July 2007]
It does not require to emphasize that the above references do not apply only those who are members of the group known as the “Reformists Coalition” in their elections endeavors, but also include those in the reformist party known as the “Etemad Melli” who separated their way from the coalition in the hope of having their candidates be confirmed by the elections agencies. Let’s take a look at my predictions prior to the elections regarding of the behavior of this latter group. “Etemad Melli party’s separation from key reformist groups will not be beneficial for it. Positive results from talks with the conservatists were a possibility in the past, but with this development, it no longer exists.” [“An Impossible Concord”, Norooz, 28 August 2007]
At that time, when the secretary of the Etemad Melli party Mehdi Karubi strongly criticized the “radical” reformists and predicted “definitively that the Eight Majlis would comprise of moderate fellow thinkers, like the Fifth Majlis,” I stressed that, “To ‘definitively’ be optimistic that the future Eight Majlis would resemble the Fifth Majlis (in which the conservatives had only a slight majority in the legislature) is the result of a amazing naivety about the process of the coming elections. The real question is why should the elections agencies act any differently in the upcoming elections in the coming months than the way they had acted in the 2004 Majlis elections (when they outright rejected the credentials of all reformist candidates).” [“Definite Expenditures, Ambiguous Returns”, Rooz, 4 September 2007]
It is because of the experience that has been gained from the most recent election that I would like extend the same view to the next presidential election in 2009. “By refraining from presenting any list of candidates, reformists must for the first time make it clear to their rivals that they have to take the consequences of the disqualification of their candidates very seriously.” [“Participation without the Red Lines?” Norooz, 12 February 2008]
Reformists are getting ready for the next presidential elections in an atmosphere which can be expected to be harsher than ever on the issue of the qualification or acceptance of their candidates (and certainly more difficult than the last presidential election). Under such circumstances, I can again stress on an updated version of my prediction that I had presented on the even of the elections for the Eight Majlis: A concrete demonstration by reformists that they would not be announcing a list of candidates in the uncompetitive elections.
Still, there is not much hope that the conservatists would heed to the demands of their rivals because of this posture. But the minimum value of such a position is that for the first time it will be clear that participation in elections is not unconditional, something that reformists can use to their advantage in subsequent elections.
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The Direction of Iraqi Nationalismtag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.365972008-05-11T00:58:37Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZAhmad Zeidabadi
To show “US defeat” in Iraq and that the American invasion has only led to an unprecedented Iranian influence in the government of Iraq, the extremist newspaper Keyhan claimed that “even at Iraq’s cabinet meetings everyone talks in Persian.”
To show “US defeat” in Iraq and that the American invasion has only led to an unprecedented Iranian influence in the government of Iraq, the extremist newspaper Keyhan claimed that “even at Iraq’s cabinet meetings everyone talks in Persian.”
To understand the impact of such propaganda and claims one only has to hypothesize being an Iraqi or a member of Iraq’s cabinet led by Prime Minsiter Nouri al-Maliki. How would we Iranians feel if an Iraqi newspaper associated with the main political faction in that country reported that everybody spoke in Arabic at cabinet meetings of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a way to indicate the influence that Iraq enjoyed in Iran?
Regrettably the Iranian media and official forums of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been making such exaggerated statements about the influence of Iran in Iraq to the extent that many Arab states perceive that Mr. Maleki is a stooge of Iran, and thus have conditioned the normalization of their relations with Iraq to the latter’s distancing of its relations with Iran.
The government of Mr. Maleki, on the other hand, has been striving to establish a balance in its relations with Iran and the US because of its historic and religious nature. But now with the growing childish propaganda that cirlces close to the Iranian regime have been advancing regarding their influence in Iraq, it appears that the Iraqis are fed up and have foregone Iran altogether, now striving to demonstrate their brotherhood with the Arab community.
The remarks that senior Iraqi officials are airing these days about Iran’s interference and role in the unrest in Iraq clearly indicate that the Shiite government of Iraq no longer wishes to be viewed as a factional government subservient to Iran, and is attempting to present itself as a national and Arab government.
The change in perspective from factionalism to nationalism that Shiite parties running Iraq are demonstrating is of course a major transformation in the process of government building and religious political thought in the Middle East which deserves a separate examination. But it must not be forgotten that Iraqi nationalism, especially its extremist form in recent decades, has been defined with anti Iranianism.
Because of the modern nature of government and historic necessity in the Middle East, perhaps the path that the Iraqi government has undertaken is really unavoidable, but there is no doubt that the pace and direction that this process is taking is not completely uninfluenced from the childish propaganda coming from Tehran about the nature of the Iraqi government.
I believe that despite all the noisy propaganda that has been launched about the role of political religion in the Middle East, a new kind of nationalism is emerging in the region which will eventually determine events in the domestic and regional spheres.
If this nationalism remains peaceful and nation-loving, it can be the catalyst for an inexpensive transition from the age of extremism to a just redistribution of national interest and economic cooperation among regional states. On the other hand if this new nationalism takes on an aggressive and racist direction, then not only will the region once again spin into the exercise of accumulating hatred of neighbors, and engage in new wars and conflicts, but as the obstacle to any development and progress in the region, will actually fall under the shadow of extremism.
So we Iranians who have the potential for expressing our nationalism must be careful and sensitive about the emergence of extreme and destructive nationalism from patriotism, and in particular not forget that any racial supremacy and hatred creation against other races can easily lead to a similar response and reaction from the other side which could only end in conflict and war.
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Increasing Suppressiontag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.362662008-05-11T00:58:27Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZMorteza Kazemian
Emadeddin Baghi is taken to the Evin Prison; the verdicts of three oppressed Amir Kabir students were upheld by the appellate court; Hadi Ghabel was sent to prison in Ghom; Shirin Ebadi was threatened with death; women’s rights activist, Nasrin Afzali, is sentenced to lashes...
Emadeddin Baghi is taken to the Evin Prison; the verdicts of three oppressed Amir Kabir students were upheld by the appellate court; Hadi Ghabel was sent to prison in Ghom; Shirin Ebadi was threatened with death; women’s rights activist, Nasrin Afzali, is sentenced to lashes...
These events have taken place in the past two weeks alone. Can one talk about the phenomenon of “increasing suppression” in the country’s political atmosphere? The answer, perhaps, is yes. It seems as if the Iranian civil society will experience more hardships in the present year than the previous one.
One can predict that we will witness increasing suppression of civil society activists in the new year for two main reasons: first, the increasing weight of international pressure following the passage of the third U.N. resolution against Iran; and secondly, the increasing and uncontrollable rate of inflation. The second reason is not separable from the first. Political pressure and sanctions, and economic pressure on the political regime ruling Iran, will, undoubtedly, influence the Iranian economy. This pressure, in turn, is completed with the Ahmadinejad Administration’s mismanagement of the economy and its counterproductive monetary and financial policies.
The Iranian government, in order to impose its authority and hegemony, has no option but to suppress the civil society, intellectuals and potential and actual dissidents, and to impose increasing pressure on Iranian institutions and human rights organizations, and to suppress unions and public demands. The reason is because the government lacks the democratic culture to incorporate the public’s demands in a soft, tolerable and reasonable manner. The eight Majlis election results demonstrate that a considerable portion of the country’s population, especially in larger cities, view the power structure’s political struggles with silence and from a distance, avoiding direct involvement in its games.
In such circumstances, any kind of official and collective protest, if interpreted as a threat to government’s authority, will be confronted harshly. The harsh suppression of a union protest in a factory in Tehran’s suburb is a perfect example. Obviously, as such protests become more violent and take the shape of citywide rebellions (like the ones we witnessed in the early 1990s in some large cities), they will be more violently and forcefully suppressed.
In addition, we must not forget that this year is an important one for the Ahmadinejad Administration – and its opponents. Ahmadinejad does not want his administration to be portrayed as inept and his policies as ineffective in the months remaining to the presidential election, and powerful government institutions are not willing to relinquish power either. Ahmadinejad’s opponents do not want to miss the opportunity to denounce Ahmadinejad Administration’s poor performance and failed policies. Power struggles will create a more nervous environment in Iran.
What has been said can – unfortunately – mean increasing suppression of critics and opponents. The suppression of political, cultural, and social spheres will assume higher priority for the rulers of Iran.
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Leader, Responsible for Today’s Condition? tag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.361642008-05-11T00:58:21Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZMasoud Behnoud
m.behnoud@roozonline.com
A few days after the publication of the letter of Ahmad Ghabel, a religious reformist who criticized the supreme leader for “assisting a gang's takeover of the country” and “dictatorship of one vote,” in his last speech on the floor of the Majlis, representative from Tabriz Akbar Alami blasted Ayatollah Khamenei for miseries imposed on the nation by institutions under his control.
A few days after the publication of the letter of Ahmad Ghabel, a religious reformist who criticized the supreme leader for “assisting a gang's takeover of the country” and “dictatorship of one vote,” in his last speech on the floor of the Majlis, representative from Tabriz Akbar Alami blasted Ayatollah Khamenei for miseries imposed on the nation by institutions under his control.
What made the Tabriz representative’s criticism all the more significant was his assertion that "the supreme leader is equal to others in the eyes of law" and that "the supreme leader and his appointees are responsible to the people and must be held accountable for their actions."
Such criticisms of top government officials are ordinary happenings in other countries. However, in Iran, the reaction of the judiciary and paramilitary pressure groups to the slightest criticism of the supreme leader’s responsibilities or performance has been very severe and violent.
Akbar Alami’s speech on the Majlis floor, and his reference to Ayatollah Khamenei’s legal duties, finds new meaning given the Ahmadinejad administration’s mismanagement of the economy, resulting in high inflation and unemployment rates, which have diminished the popularity of the president (and those supporting him) in the public's eye.
The administration, which has been enjoying high oil prices (above hundred dollars per barrel), because of its propaganda efforts, has been identified in the minds of the people as the supreme leader’s favorite administration and, as a result, Ayatollah Khamenei has come to bear the blame for the government’s failures.
On the other hand, Iran's hardline stance in the nuclear case, which has resulted in the passage of Security Council resolutions against Iran, exacerbating the nation's economic woes, has been identified as Ayatollah Khamenei's chosen policy.
The handling of the eight Majlis elections, which were ridiculed as the Islamic Republic's worst election experience, and which was engineered by the Guardian Council, are among other criticisms pointed at the supreme leader.
That Mr. Alami's directed his latest criticism at the supreme leader and the Guardian Council, and not Ahmadinejad, is because of the vast powers given to the supreme leader by the Constitution, enabling him to control all government branches in the Islamic Republic.
An official who has the largest arsenal of legal powers in Iran's history, and in whom the largest amount of constitutional powers are gathered, must find a way of holding institutions under his rule accountable. Otherwise, the supreme leader will no longer be able to blame officials under him, including those in the executive branch, for failures and hope that people will do so too.
No one has yet volunteered in the Islamic Republic to supervise the supreme leader's performance. In the future though, this task may find some volunteers, perhaps in the Assembly of Experts, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani.
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Grandmother and National Security tag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.360392008-05-11T00:58:17Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZShirin Ebadi
The news of Khadijeh Moghaddam’s arrest, reminded anyone who knew her of two obvious qualities of her social activism: moderation and sacrifice.
Mrs. Moghaddam was among the most prominent and experienced volunteer social activists. She began her activist carrier with attempts to save the environment.
The news of Khadijeh Moghaddam’s arrest, reminded anyone who knew her of two obvious qualities of her social activism: moderation and sacrifice.
Mrs. Moghaddam was among the most prominent and experienced volunteer social activists. She began her activist carrier with attempts to save the environment. Her successful experience in Iran’s green movement got her involved in other social activities and turned her into one of the best-known women activists and members of the “One Millions Signatures” campaign.
At the same time, her membership in the campaign and her sense of responsibility towards Iranian women did not undermine her sense of responsibility for victims of injustice and rape in other parts of the world. For this reason, and with the help of several of her colleagues, she helped set up the “Mothers Committee for Peace and Justice.” In its short existence, the Committee left a memorable legacy, ranging from meeting with mothers of detained students to assist them in their quest to pursue their legal and moral demands to staging a demonstration in front of the United Nations office in Tehran to show solidarity with Palestinian mothers.
In addition, Khaddijeh Moghadam was also an active member of the Center of Human Rights Defenders and always, when volunteers were needed to help fellow citizens in need, was at the forefront of the line of volunteers.
Activists in the Iranian civil society do not forget Mrs. Moghaddam’s central role following the Bam earthquake. Following the earthquake, 70 civil society organizations agreed to set up a bank account under my name to collect money for founding a women’s cultural center in Bam. The afore-mentioned organizations selected a committee to lead the project, which was comprised of Khadijeh Moghaddam, along with myself and Behdokht Roshdiyeh.
Where is Iran’s judiciary headed? Why does it fear women like Khadijeh Moghaddam so much that it sends her to prison in handcuffs?
I ask the respected judge, who resides over Mrs. Moghaddam’s case: does a 65-year-old grandmother, who has spent her whole life in public service projects threaten your national security? Where was the respected judge on those cold and hot days when Mrs. Moghaddam was carrying a trash bag to clean up the mountains surrounding the capital?
Do the judiciary’s officials really believe that they can protect the nation against forieng and domestic threats by sending people like Khadijeh Moghaddam to prison in handcuffs?
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A Late, But Necessary Messagetag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.359852008-05-11T00:58:14Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZIssa Saharkhiz
Predictions about the engineered implementation of the eight Majlis elections (held in March 2008) turned out to be true. Before people returned from their Iranian New Year's trips (in Iran known as the Nowruz) and independent and reformists newspapers resumed publication, the appointed Guardian Council confirmed the results of Tehran's elections, completely disregarding the assertions and complaints of election violations.
Predictions about the engineered implementation of the eight Majlis elections (held in March 2008) turned out to be true. Before people returned from their Iranian New Year's trips (in Iran known as the Nowruz) and independent and reformists newspapers resumed publication, the appointed Guardian Council confirmed the results of Tehran's elections, completely disregarding the assertions and complaints of election violations.
In the midst of this debacle, the Guardian Council's disregard for the requests of Khatami (former President) and Karoubi (former Majlis Speaker) to recount Tehran's votes and provide computerized reports of each district's results is of importance. The response to these two individual’s complaint came not from a high governmental official, but from a low level, junior clerk, implying that, for the Iranian regime, Mr. Khatami and Mr. Karoubi have no significance as leaders of the reformist movement.
In this connection, Taghiabadi, the Guardian Council's special prosecutor in the district of Tehran, Rey, Shemiranat and Islamshahr, told the Fars News Agency: "Due to the monitoring of the Guardian Council and party representatives in the gathering and counting of ballots, it is impossible to recount Tehran's votes."
Before examining submitted complains and allegations, he said, "The eight Majlis elections were among those with the most integrity in terms of implementation, oversight, and vote counting." In this interview, the requests made by Khatami and Karoubi are degraded to be requests by "certain individuals and groups." Taghiabadi also advised candidates to "prepare for runoff elections instead of wasting time."
Following Taghiabadi's remarks, the spokesperson for the Guardian Council announced what he had made reference to in an interview with the Fars News Agency: "Election results in Tehran and 35 other electoral districts have been fully approved." With these remarks, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei provided support for the viewpoint that reformists must forget about participating in elections until they can guarantee the accuracy of the results. Perhaps for this reason a rumor has began circulating in political circles that reformist candidates who are facing opponents in the second round of elections have resigned and decided not to participate, because the regime has already decided on the results of those elections.
And just as they played an active role in organizing and mobilizing the reformists forces until now, one expects that Khatami and Karoubi to continue to support the remaining eight or ten reformist candidates and not to abandon them. When reformist candidates in Tehran's runoff election decide to resign in protest, it is normal to expect Khatami and Karoubi to announce clearly that their recommendation to the group is none other than not to participate.
By doing this, Khatami and Karoubi will be sending a clear signal to different groups. This action will not only send a clear message to the disqualified candidates who joined the race on their recommendations, to the accepted candidates who lost the elections, and to the people who opted to vote but whose votes are in limbo, it will also strengthen the pro-democracy and pro-reform movement and thus clarify the future path. And although late, this will be a necessary message for any "free, healthy, and fair" elections in Iran.
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Bail for What Crime? tag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.359842008-05-11T00:58:07Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZAsieh Amini
The phone rings. The number is Lili's. I think maybe she wants to congratulate the "eid" [Persian New Year held every year in March 21]. But my friend's worry transcends anything relating to the New Year or congratulations. She says, "Have you heard about Khadijeh?"
The phone rings. The number is Lili's. I think maybe she wants to congratulate the "eid" [Persian New Year held every year in March 21]. But my friend's worry transcends anything relating to the New Year or congratulations. She says, "Have you heard about Khadijeh?"
"No! What happened?" Every bad thought, from accident to all types of diseases, jumps to my head - every thought, other than that she has been handcuffed and taken from her home to prison.
Not because that would be strange, no. We are used to it. But to do it to a woman like Khadijeh, who was always a symbol of peace and reason for me, is hard to fathom. When my friend hangs up, I can't stop thinking: "Why?"
Why a woman like Khadijeh Moghaddam? During the violent suppression of the 15 June, 2006 demonstration, she told calmly to a green-wearing man who was insulting her, "Shame on you, I am your mother's age." The man, of course, continued to shout the worst insults at her.
Since the evening, when I heard the news, up to the middle of the night, when I am writing these lines, the lovely image of Khadijeh Moghaddam has not left my mind. I know her from a few years ago, when she was a stubborn woman fighting against the destruction of the environment, something that she still cares about.
When on February 9, 2006, Tehran's municipality cut 12 thousand trees in "Lavizan" to build a highway, that very morning, Khadijeh Moghaddam and a number of her colleagues headed to Lavizan, carrying signs and tents. They stayed in the Lavizan woods to prevent further cuts.
I review the memories of these past years. In a meeting of women's rights activists, after the usual greetings, she said, "Aren't you throwing a party?" I asked, "For what?" She responded, "We have an initiative for all people who are throwing parties in their homes which benefits both them and a group of women in need of help." Then, with a lot of energy, she began describing the initiative, devised by her and her friends, to help disadvantaged women cook and sell food at low cost to people.
Khadijeh Moghaddam's volunteer activism and motherly support for the One Million Signatures Campaign, and her initiative to set up the Mothers' Committee of the campaign along with some of the more experienced campaigners, brought her a kind of fame as a supportive mother figure backing the young campaigners. Before that all, however, Khadijeh was known as a peace-loving and anti-war woman, a mother supporting her land and all its children.
Khadijeh Moghaddam was taken to jail this morning in handcuffs and asked to post bail. An hour ago, when I was speaking with her family, they told the story of how she told the officers, "For what crime do I need to post bail? I haven't committed any crimes."
Bail and handcuffs and arrest for a women who, three months ago, was doing all she could to save the lives of several people convicted to death, seems like a joke.
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The Country Imports all its Food Needstag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.366462008-05-11T00:57:57Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZInterview with Economist Saeed Leylaz
Omid Memarian
o.memarian@roozonline.com
In an exclusive interview with Rooz, prominent economist Saeed Leylaz talks of the effect of global inflation on Iran’s economy. Read on for the details.
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Omid Memariano.memarian@roozonline.com
In an exclusive interview with Rooz, prominent economist Saeed Leylaz talks of the effect of global inflation on Iran’s economy. Read on for the details.
Rooz (R ): A few day ago the Central Bank (CBI) announced the inflation rate to be a staggering 19.5 percent, which according to the IMF is the highest in the Middle East and the fifth highest in the world. Iranian officials had predicted in March that inflation would stabilize at 15 percent. Why has the rate gone up?
Saeed Leylaz (SL): Global inflation has a very strong impact on the Iranian economy. This effects of global inflation are only now coming to Iran, which was not the case in the past. Despite CBI’s measures to reduce the rate of inflation, what is dominant in this economy is what I call financial anarchism and chaos. The large number of checks that have been issued without any controls are among the examples of this chaos, which despite the CBI’s efforts in recent months to collect, continues to plague the financial and economic sectors of the country.
The other issue is that while monetary and fiscal policies are expected to be in harmony and complimentary, they are not. For the first time in the history of this country, prior to the 1979 revolution and after it, these two policies are contradictory.
We must not forget that the international prices of food have only gone up by about 65 to 70 percent while during the last 3 years, the Iranian economy has shifted from an exporter of food products to a large importer of food. If you walk into any fruit market in Tehran you will see ten non-essential foreign fruits presented for sale. Iran currently has a multi-billion Dollar import bill for foreign autos, fruits, different kinds of meat and other products that are not essential to people. Because of these imports, the inflation that exists in the international markets is passed on to the Iranian economy.
R: What is the impact of the UN sanctions and the refusal of European, Japanese and American companies from dealing with Iran?
MJ: These all impact it. Opening any Letter of Credit to import anything is becoming more difficult and more expensive by the day. The expenses associated with money transfers are now more expensive than before. Also note that the value of the currencies of the countries you have mentioned in relation to the Rial has gone up so much that it is no longer economic for Iran to buy products from them. This is another economic reason that pushes us towards countries like China. The issue is that these Dollars that used be counter-inflationary have now become expensive.
R: It is said that the government has had oil revenues of $200 billion over the last three years. How can this large amount of money help reduce inflation and under what conditions will it have the opposite effect?
MJ: As I speak with you, there are some 100,000 containers that have been waiting for a month to unload their contents in Iranian ports. The transportation, customs, and ports infrastructure cannot handle so much traffic. Therefore a lot of money is paid as demurrage on these imports, which is in addition to the 2 percent per month damage that is charged for them. Our liquidity has similar problems. Until 1997 this country used to import about $12 billion worth of goods but in 2008 I think the imports bill be between $70 and $75 billion, for products and services. This is six to seven times what it used to be.. We do not have the capacity to import so much. And just like in 1977, a sharp rise in imports led to astronomical rates of inflation. The government must be more cautious in the import of these Dollars into the national economy. But whatever it does now, it will only lead to still higher inflation rates.
R: So what is the short term solution to control this inflation?
MJ: There is no short term solution. In fact the problem with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s administration is that it only seeks short term solutions. We must return to proper fiscal policies that were planned and outlined in the fourth development plan. If we do not return to fiscal discipline and reduce the size of the government and do not bring the influx of Dollars under control, we will not accomplish anything. The government must succeed in reducing its budget deficit for which it must reduce its own size and increase its revenues. There is no other way to control inflation. The principal cause of inflation in Iran is the government’s budget deficit.
Mr. Ahmadinejad has created a reversal and detour for the Iranian economy. As I speak with you today, the rate of inflation in the country is four times higher than what it was just 2 years ago. This means the rate has changed from 6.5 percent in March/April of 2006 to 24 percent in March/April of 2008. This reversal in policy was because of its deregulation policies and unleashing the free markets which has struck a heavy blow on the national economy. Our proposal is that the government must return to fiscal discipline and return to the free market and control is expenses, reduce its subsidies and embark on a series of contractionary fiscal policies to control inflation. For the short term, the best way to bring inflation under control is to increase the interest rate.
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Akram will be Executed because of Povertytag:www.roozonline.com,2008:/english//2.366452008-05-11T00:57:47Z2008-05-11T00:15:34ZSpecial Report on a Death Row Woman
Aiseh Amini
The following interview is with Mina Jaafari, the attorney for Ms Akram Mahdavi who has been sentenced to death on charges of murdering her husband.
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Aiseh Amini
The following interview is with Mina Jaafari, the attorney for Ms Akram Mahdavi who has been sentenced to death on charges of murdering her husband.
Rooz (R): What news do you have regarding Akram’s case?
Mina Jaafari (MJ): She is on the death row now awaiting execution.
R: Akram has killed her husband. Homicide is not accepted by the public regardless of its form. But killing of a spouse is a new phenomena on the rise in Iran. Since you have been working with one of these women, why do you think she murdered her husband? What forced her to come to that dead end point in her life?
MJ: Akram is completely helpless. You can see that in her face. She has never enjoyed any family support, even now that is just two steps from death. Her first marriage came about when she was only thirteen, meaning that she neither made her own decision nor had the right to choose. At 18 she and her husband divorced and her husband went after another woman abandoning her and her five year old child to themselves. In reality, Akram experienced betrayal when she was a mere adolescent. Her second marriage too came about under conditions where she did not have a choice. Two years after her divorce, her father forced her to marry a man who was 48 years older than her! She says she felt ashamed to tell others that he was her husband because he was more like her father or even grandfather, she said. So while it is true that we are talking about someone who has committed murder, but we must be cautious in that label because we cannot ignore the life behind that murder. One cannot disregard the humiliation, hatred and abuse that Akram’s soul has suffered. One cannot stop asking what happened to this woman’s right to choose, her right to happiness etc. Every man in her life exploited her. Even the man (not her husband) who appeared to love her and deceived her under this pretext.
R: Had Akram fallen in love?
MJ: It appears that all she really wanted was to liberate herself from the life that had been imposed on her and which was suffocating her. This was the first time she had come across a Kurdish man who sang a different song. He made promises to her. But Akram was not in live with him, but with the freedom and liberation that he promised her. She was acquitted of the charges of adultery. We do know however that such a possibility existed for her. This is yet another indication that she was simply fed up with everything around her.
R: Akram has failed to get the consent of the next of kin of her ex husband, so what is her current status? Is there any chance to save her?
MJ: The family of the victim has conditioned any consent to withdraw their charges for monetary returns. But the amount they have requested is extremely high, 60 million Toman (approximately $60 thousand). This amount is twice the norm for a murder.
R: How much is the norm?
MJ: This year it is 40 million Toman. Last year it was 35 million Toman.
R: Some time ago you had requested the public to help your client. How much have you collected?
MJ: Promises were made for only about 3 and a half million Toman ($3,500), none of which materialized. Whatever has been contributed to this cause has come from domestic sources inside Iran. In view of the short time left for the execution of this case, I request all those outside Iran who want to help in this case to please make your contributions through people inside the country because of banking restrictions in Iran, by contributing to account number 0302-9177-50001 at Mobarezan branch of Bank Melli.
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The new High Council for Cultural Revolution’s memorandum, titled “Bylaws of Sunni Religious Seminaries Planning Commission,” has added to discontent among the country’s Sunni minority. According to an official report by the Islamic Republic’s News Agency, the “Bylaws of Sunni Religious Seminaries Planning Commission” has 10 Articles and 4 Addendums. According to one article, from now on Sunni religious seminaries will be managed and run according to the Bylaws of Sunni Religious Seminaries Planning Commission and under the guidance of representatives appointed by the supreme leader.
In addition to Sunni clerics that have openly criticized the new measure, the Friday prayer leader of Zahedan’s Sunni community yesterday addressed members of the High Council for Cultural Revolution, “The High Council for Cultural Revolution is responsible for governing the country’s schools and universities. Sunni clerics are responsible for overseeing the education of the Sunni community and Sunni schools and seminaries.”
Molavi Abdolhamid identified religious beliefs as the red line for Sunnis and Shias, noting, “No individual, group or government should cross these red lines.”
Molavi Abdolhamid added, “We announce to head of states in which Sunnis have a majority that they should not interfere in religious customs and practices of Shias, and in places where Sunnis are in minority, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, no one should interfere in the religious affairs of the Sunni community.”
He noted, “The Constitution has afforded us this right and we respect the Constitution… The Constitution is the backbone of the state and nation, and no one is allowed to act above the Constitution. The responsibilities of every institution have been outlined in the Constitution. Because the Constitution has given us members of the Sunni community complete religious freedom, we are free to run, manage and promote our religious seminaries.”
The Friday prayer leader of Zahedan’s Sunni community added, “Religious schools and seminaries are independent and have their own curriculum, just as Shia religious seminaries are independently operated without government’s interference.”
He also called on Islamic Republic officials to refrain from “politicizing religion,” adding, “The government is in charge of political and economic affairs and providing security for the country’s citizens. Religion and beliefs must not become politicized; rather, the government must become religious.”
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Rooz (R ): A few day ago the Central Bank (CBI) announced the inflation rate to be a staggering 19.5 percent, which according to the IMF is the highest in the Middle East and the fifth highest in the world. Iranian officials had predicted in March that inflation would stabilize at 15 percent. Why has the rate gone up?
Saeed Leylaz (SL): Global inflation has a very strong impact on the Iranian economy. This effects of global inflation are only now coming to Iran, which was not the case in the past. Despite CBI’s measures to reduce the rate of inflation, what is dominant in this economy is what I call financial anarchism and chaos. The large number of checks that have been issued without any controls are among the examples of this chaos, which despite the CBI’s efforts in recent months to collect, continues to plague the financial and economic sectors of the country.
The other issue is that while monetary and fiscal policies are expected to be in harmony and complimentary, they are not. For the first time in the history of this country, prior to the 1979 revolution and after it, these two policies are contradictory.
We must not forget that the international prices of food have only gone up by about 65 to 70 percent while during the last 3 years, the Iranian economy has shifted from an exporter of food products to a large importer of food. If you walk into any fruit market in Tehran you will see ten non-essential foreign fruits presented for sale. Iran currently has a multi-billion Dollar import bill for foreign autos, fruits, different kinds of meat and other products that are not essential to people. Because of these imports, the inflation that exists in the international markets is passed on to the Iranian economy.
R: What is the impact of the UN sanctions and the refusal of European, Japanese and American companies from dealing with Iran?
MJ: These all impact it. Opening any Letter of Credit to import anything is becoming more difficult and more expensive by the day. The expenses associated with money transfers are now more expensive than before. Also note that the value of the currencies of the countries you have mentioned in relation to the Rial has gone up so much that it is no longer economic for Iran to buy products from them. This is another economic reason that pushes us towards countries like China. The issue is that these Dollars that used be counter-inflationary have now become expensive.
R: It is said that the government has had oil revenues of $200 billion over the last three years. How can this large amount of money help reduce inflation and under what conditions will it have the opposite effect?
MJ: As I speak with you, there are some 100,000 containers that have been waiting for a month to unload their contents in Iranian ports. The transportation, customs, and ports infrastructure cannot handle so much traffic. Therefore a lot of money is paid as demurrage on these imports, which is in addition to the 2 percent per month damage that is charged for them. Our liquidity has similar problems. Until 1997 this country used to import about $12 billion worth of goods but in 2008 I think the imports bill be between $70 and $75 billion, for products and services. This is six to seven times what it used to be.. We do not have the capacity to import so much. And just like in 1977, a sharp rise in imports led to astronomical rates of inflation. The government must be more cautious in the import of these Dollars into the national economy. But whatever it does now, it will only lead to still higher inflation rates.
R: So what is the short term solution to control this inflation?
MJ: There is no short term solution. In fact the problem with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s administration is that it only seeks short term solutions. We must return to proper fiscal policies that were planned and outlined in the fourth development plan. If we do not return to fiscal discipline and reduce the size of the government and do not bring the influx of Dollars under control, we will not accomplish anything. The government must succeed in reducing its budget deficit for which it must reduce its own size and increase its revenues. There is no other way to control inflation. The principal cause of inflation in Iran is the government’s budget deficit.
Mr. Ahmadinejad has created a reversal and detour for the Iranian economy. As I speak with you today, the rate of inflation in the country is four times higher than what it was just 2 years ago. This means the rate has changed from 6.5 percent in March/April of 2006 to 24 percent in March/April of 2008. This reversal in policy was because of its deregulation policies and unleashing the free markets which has struck a heavy blow on the national economy. Our proposal is that the government must return to fiscal discipline and return to the free market and control is expenses, reduce its subsidies and embark on a series of contractionary fiscal policies to control inflation. For the short term, the best way to bring inflation under control is to increase the interest rate.
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