Hamid Ahadi

As the new Iranian calendar year began on March 20, 2008, Iranian economists presented ‎a grim picture of what to expect this year: The biggest tensions this year would be ‎brought on not because of domestic or foreign political issues, but because of economic ‎issues brought about by the failure of Ahmadinejad’s Administration to meet its promises ‎and its inability to control inflation in any meaningful way, to deal with the rising ‎unemployment chaos, or to deal with the growing social and public pressure that is ‎imposed on the masses.‎

Prominent economist Saeed Leylaz believes that inflation will remain the most important ‎economic and social issue for the country, followed by the status of the nuclear issue. In ‎Etemad newspaper’s review of the year, he writes that the rate of inflation and its greatest ‎impact on food and housing, which together have put a quarter of all Iranian families at ‎serious risk, will continue to reach dangerous levels, possibly even threatening social and ‎national security stability. And all this while the tools to control inflation are few in ‎number, ineffective in performance and insufficient in quantity.‎

Another economist Mansur Bitaraf put the blame of the current economic woes on the ‎government’s disregard for the warnings of economists at the recently dissolved agency ‎‎(Management and Planning Organization) and the officials’ displeasure with their ‎criticism of budget allocations. He wrote that because of the widening gap between ‎production and consumption, and the growing public need for home gas in winter, every ‎government official knows that a gas crisis is in the works.‎

Another observer former minister of Industries Ishaq Jahangir also warned that because ‎of the President’s over-expenditures, Iran faces what he called the “Dutch syndrome”.‎

On BBC’s Persian language website, Sadegh Saba wrote that Mr. Ahmadinejad’s failure ‎to address economic problems of Iran - despite the fantastic rise in petro-Dollar revenues ‎‎– has cost him his popularity, which may encourage his hardliner peers to replace him. ‎Saba also wrote that even though the outcome of the recent Majlis elections may have ‎strengthened ayatollah Khamenei’s hand but it have not necessarily been good for Mr. ‎Ahmadinejad making him perhaps the first President not to be re-elected for a second ‎term.‎

Another economist Mohammad Ali Sobhani stressed that while the middle class ‎constituted the public base for the Islamic Revolution of Iran, and added that unchecked ‎inflation particularly at a time when unemployment is on the rise and production and ‎incomes are falling leads to the widening gap among the social classes, making the ‎middle class weaker which leads to ethical (corruption) and religious tensions followed ‎by social unrest.‎

In response to the question of what issue would pass from the previous year to the new ‎one, respected analyst Sadegh Zibakalam resorted to a joke to make his point. “I thought ‎hard about this but could not come up with an answer. All the problems of 2007 have ‎already been solved,” he quipped.‎

Writing from Tehran, a reporter from the London-based Independent newspaper linked ‎the new Iranian calendar year with economic issues and the recent Majlis elections to ‎conclude that happiness for Iranians is on the fall. Three years into President ‎Ahmadinejad’s populist policies since he came to power 3 years ago have lead to higher ‎inflation and unemployment which produced a harsh backlash against his supporters.‎