To compare the Middle East to a keg of gun powder is no longer an exaggeration. I ‎cannot predict whether this keg will explode or not, but I am certain that if it is not ‎defused an explosion is certain.‎

What makes me so pessimistic is the continuation of the political impasse in Lebanon ‎after the recent Arab summit in Damascus. Earlier I believed that to encourage the ‎leaders of Arabia, Egypt and Jordon who came to the meeting, Syria would demonstrate ‎softness regarding the crises in Lebanon and would in fact convince its partners in ‎Lebanon to accept the presidency of Michel Suleiman as the first step in resolving the ‎political crises.‎

But Syria preferred to keep its position regarding the Lebanese crises rather than the ‎presence of the heads of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordon and other Arab heads of state, ‎pushing Lebanon and the Middle East in general onto a dangerous point. ‎

Perhaps a miracle will take place and events will move in the direction of tranquility and ‎stability, but since miracles have stopped happening in this part of the world – and even if ‎they did they would not have the familiar effects – the eruption of yet another crises is ‎not unreasonable to expect. In this light, I think Israel’s civil-defense maneuver carries ‎great significance particularly because of the recent remarks of Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, ‎the Israeli minister of National Infrastructure. I have no doubt that through this maneuver ‎the Israelis are preparing themselves for a major and extensive war, or at the least are ‎taking such a possibility very seriously.‎

I do not know whether Israel is contemplating a surprise attack on Iran’s nuclear ‎installations and the civil defense exercise is a step towards neutralizing the possible ‎response of the Islamic Republic of Iran or that it is envisioning a confrontation with ‎Hezbollah and possibly Syria before that.‎

What is strange to me is that the Israelis more than any other nation, take the words of ‎Iranian leaders and particularly those of Mr. Ahmadinejad regarding them very seriously, ‎while they call on other states to take these words seriously too. Iranian leaders more than ‎any other leader in the world consider the words and plans of Israel against the Islamic ‎Republic of Iran to be insignificant, and ask others not to take them seriously too.‎

In recent years Israelis have been focusing their plans on Iran and I do not think there is ‎anybody else in the world as determined and perseverant as them. ‎

Under these circumstances, what should be most concerning to Iranian leaders is the ‎apparent and clandestine alliance that exists between pro-US Arab states and Israel over ‎Iran. The mysterious and mystifying death of Imad Mughniyeh, the commander of ‎Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the nature of the Arab response to it showed that from the ‎perspective of key Arab states, Hezbollah, Iran and their allies are more dangerous to ‎them than Israel., and that if Israel goes head to head with Iran or its allies for whatever ‎reason, it will enjoy the clandestine support of those Arab states.‎

I think the recent confrontation with the Al-Mehdi brigade in Iraq to disarm it is not ‎disconnected to these other events.‎

If I were an Iranian leader, I would look at the events in the region from a different ‎perspective and would particularly desist presenting them in pleasing terms.‎