Omid Memarian ‎
o.memarian@roozonline.com

Prominent Iranian economist Saeed Leilaz speaks to Rooz about the effects of the United ‎Nations Security Council’s sanctions on Iran’s economy. He believes that a majority of ‎the country’s economic woes result not from the Security Council's imposed sanctions, ‎but from the government's mismanagement of the economy. ‎

Rooz (R): There are various viewpoints on the effects of the United Nations Security ‎Council’s sanctions on the Iranian economy. In your opinion, how destructive are these ‎sanctions? ‎

Saeed Leilaz (SL): I believe that the United Nations’ general aim is to put pressure on ‎the Islamic Republic’s financial veins and economic relations with the outside world. ‎Both the first and the second round of sanctions targeted Iran’s banking and financial ‎systems. The third round of sanctions was weaker and less severe. However, the reality ‎is that all three rounds of sanctions taken together are not able to create serious problems ‎for the Iranian economy. At worst, they will make Iranian imports more expensive and ‎exports a bit cheaper, but the net effect on the Iranian economy could be less than a ‎billion dollars. This number is not a big one for a country that generates 300 million ‎dollars a day in foreign currency revenues. ‎

R: If the sanctions are not affecting the Iranian economy, then what is the reason behind ‎imposing them, in your opinion?‎

SL: What the Americans are pursuing is Iran's international isolation, and they have been ‎able to achieve that with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s help and their own diplomacy.‎

R: Do you think the military option is still on the table for America? ‎

SL: I am certain that they are thinking about it, because a nuclear Iran is Washington’s ‎red line. However, right now America is trapped in Iraq and cannot expand its battle ‎fronts; secondly, Americans are now busy with their own domestic elections; thirdly, the ‎price of crude oil is very high and in these circumstances it is impossible to further ‎escalate military tensions in the Middle East; fourthly, in my opinion, American ‎intelligence organizations have reached the conclusion that Iran will not become a ‎nuclear danger until 2010. In other words, there is time up to 2010 to stop Iran and the ‎speed of Iran’s success in achieving nuclear breakthroughs is less than advertised. For ‎this reason, Americans are buying time. On the other hand, though, Tehran is buying ‎time as well to advance its nuclear program. In reality, the situation is like a game. But ‎in this period, which could last three to four years, Americans hope that, not sanctions by ‎themselves, but sanctions coupled with the country’s economic mismanagement would ‎spark changes in Iran. In reality, I believe that the effect of sanctions is one-hundredth of ‎the effect of Ahmadinejad Administration’s mismanagement, meaning that if you divide ‎the economic problems to one hundred parts, 99 parts result for the mismanagement of ‎the Iranian economy and only one part is due to the Security Council’s sanctions. ‎Actually the sanctions allow the Iranian government to hide itself behind them and claim ‎that sanctions cause the problems. ‎

R: What are the effects of the sanctions on various parts of the Iranian society? ‎

SL: The sanctions have not affected the people much. What has affected the Iranian ‎people is economic mismanagement which is a domestic problem. It seems like the ‎radicals do not mind sanctions politically or economically, especially sanctions that are ‎designed so weakly. Such sanctions are not able to paralyze the country, and at the same ‎time, they provide an excuse for the government to announce emergency rule and ‎confront opposition forces. In any case, radical forces enjoy Iran’s isolation. ‎