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Naser Irani

In Abbas Abdi's view, there are no prospects for reconciliation between the student movement ‎and the government. Students are dissatisfied with the government's performance, while the ‎government fears that student protests may lead to a domino effect. Prominent dissident Abbas ‎Abdi thus concludes that if the clergy enters the scene as an independent force, the balance of ‎power will be maintained and the conditions that are conducive to the empowerment of domestic ‎radicals will vanish. ‎

Commenting on the student movement, Abdi believes that the situation may advance into one ‎direction or another at this point. Increasing intimidation of the student movement may ‎radicalize the students more so than before; alternatively, it may pacify them compared to before. ‎

Abdi says, "It is clear that dissatisfactions will increase. However, this does not simply mean ‎that there will be more demands, because there aren't any prospects of meeting those demands ‎either." ‎

Abdi adds, "I don't understand what is meant by the term 'student movement.' If we use the ‎name 'movement' to refer to any happening, then the word becomes devoid of its meaning. The ‎reality is that we do not have a student movement. We do not have a political movement either, ‎though conditions are more ripe than before for the emergence of one. It is not accurate to call ‎certain behaviors a 'movement' when the people responsible for those behaviors are not able to ‎even hold a simple meeting inside their campus. I have been a part of the student movement and ‎know what a student movement must consist in. We are seeing a similar thing with the teachers' ‎protests, and also among the public. However, certain necessities must be met before mass ‎dissatisfactions is turned into a movement and begins to flow like a river." ‎

Abdi continues, "The government is concerned with a domino effect… Right now, if something ‎happens, it happens quickly and secondly, the consequences will be unpredictable. Officials are ‎very sensitive about inflation, even though they cannot solve it, although they have brought it ‎under control to some degree; had they not done that, the situation would have gotten much ‎worse than it is now. Every sane person knows what it means to lift the tariff on sugar, ‎something that they have done in order to control inflation. They think, correctly so, that ‎increasing inflation can trigger any uncontrollable development…. In Iran any protest can ‎quickly spread into other fields. The smallest problem can unleash a crisis. Labor protests could ‎spread to student and teacher protests. There were no more than 10 or 20 teachers during the ‎teachers' first few protests, but gradually 30 to 40 thousand people showed up to protest in front ‎of the Majlis building. Certainly, a portion of them were not teachers. In other words, a lot of ‎other people who were not teachers came to the fore because they found no other venue to vent ‎their demands. It was because of this fear that the government suppressed that gathering. They ‎were certain that they would have failed if the gathering had spread to 200 or 300 thousand ‎people. From this point of view, preconditions for a political movement have been strengthened ‎in Iran, but an actual movement no actual movement has formed yet." ‎