Rooz

Positive Equilibrium

Ali Afshari ‎ - 2007.11.14

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Coinciding with Vladimir Putin’s visit and the opening of the Caspian Sea Summit in ‎Tehran, worries have increased over the possibility that the regime may sacrifice Iran’s ‎territorial rights in exchange for Russia's support of Iran's nuclear program. ‎

President Ahmadinejad’s recent remark that there are no limits to Iran’s relations with ‎Russia has increased concerns. ‎

The worry is that Iran may accept Russia’s proposal for demarcating Caspian Sea ‎boundaries in exchange for the latter's diplomatic support. If that happens, Iran’s share of ‎Caspian Sea will amount to 13 percent of the seabed, which is not enough to entitle the ‎country to vast amounts of natural gas and oil. ‎

Iran can tap into large amounts of gas and oil reserves under the seabed only if it has a 20 ‎percent ownership. In that case, Iran will be entitled to tap into the Alborz field, which is ‎has an abundant amount of oil and natural gas. ‎

Otherwise, accepting the Russian proposal would mean losing a chunk of territory, a ‎shameful event that may take place in exchange for Russia’s support of Iran’s ‎controversial nuclear program. ‎

Furthermore, since that move is equivalent to changing the country’s boundaries and ‎territory, the Iranian nation must approve it through a referendum. According to the ‎Constitution, protecting the country’s territorial integrity is among the government's ‎essential duties. Any changes to the country’s borders or territory must be ratified by a ‎‎4/5 majority in the Majlis, and no administration can override that process and act single-‎handedly. ‎

To the contrary, Iranian public officials should have used a policy of positive ‎equilibrium, employing the United States' influence to deter Russia from infringing on ‎Iran's territorial rights in the Caspian Sea. ‎

So far, hanging on to the loose Russian rope has brought nothing but defeat for Iran. The ‎Russians have used Iran to advance their own national interests. Just as Russians have ‎abandoned completing the Bushehr nuclear facility, and just as they failed to veto two ‎United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran, there is no guarantee that they ‎will stand up to the pressure aimed at punishing Iran, even if Iran accepts their proposal ‎for demarcating Caspian Sea boundary lines. ‎

In reality, it seems as if the continuation of Iran's nuclear crisis provides Russia with an ‎unprecedented opportunity to exact concessions from both the West and Iran. ‎

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