Was Putin Carrying a Message for Iran?
Interview with Sadeq Zibakalam - 2007.10.21

Sadegh Zibakalam is a professor of political science at Tehran University and agreed to speak to Rooz about Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Tehran. This university professor believes that Iran’s vulnerable position brought about by the nuclear crisis forces it to retreat in face of demands from superpowers like Russia.
Rooz (R): It seems as if the Iranian government is in desperate need of Russia’s diplomatic support and completion of the Bushehr facility. In your opinion, how does this affect talks between Iran and Russia?
Sadegh Zibakalam (SZ): With utmost disappointment, I have to say that the nuclear program has put us in a situation in which we are, if not vulnerable, then we are forced to retreat and back down to demands by other superpowers, mainly Russia, and this is due to the position we have put ourselves in by pursuing our nuclear program. We have made ourselves dependant once on Russia and then on China and India in the Security Council. If the nuclear crisis was a non-issue we could have defended our national rights much more resolutely and strongly. Just look at the Bushehr facility, and see how Russians are betraying us. For the past ten years, the Russians have tried every trick to postpone the completion of the project.
R: Prior to Putin’s visit to Tehran the U.S. Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice and defense minister Robert Gates visited Moscow. Is it possible that Mr. Putin was carrying a message for Tehran?
SZ: It is possible. It is possible that Mr. Putin was carrying a very serious message for Tehran: that this is the last chance. Just like the Russians carried the bad news to Saddam that this is the last chance and Americans are serious, it is possible that Russia is relaying a similar message to Iran, that George W. Bush is very serious to show Iran a heavy hand before the upcoming presidential election in the U.S.. Even if the plan is not to hit certain targets in Iran, it is possible that the third resolution is very serious and harsh; or maybe Mr. Putin will tell Iran that you cannot count on us or China too much, for example, for Russia to veto a U.N. Security Council resolution.
R: In your opinion, what is the most dangerous concession that Iran can give Russia in exchange for support in the nuclear program?
SZ: [Concessions in ] the Caspian Sea demarcation. Unfortunately, there is a possibility that we may sell our rights in the Caspian Sea cheap to get out of the hole that we have dug for ourselves with the nuclear program. In other words, it is possible that we may lose a share of our territory in the Caspian Sea over the nuclear issue.
