Rooz

Was Putin Carrying a Message for Iran?

Interview with Sadeq Zibakalam - 2007.10.21

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Sadegh Zibakalam is a professor of political science at Tehran University and agreed to ‎speak to Rooz about Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Tehran. This university professor ‎believes that Iran’s vulnerable position brought about by the nuclear crisis forces it to ‎retreat in face of demands from superpowers like Russia. ‎

Rooz (R): It seems as if the Iranian government is in desperate need of Russia’s ‎diplomatic support and completion of the Bushehr facility. In your opinion, how does ‎this affect talks between Iran and Russia?‎

Sadegh Zibakalam (SZ): With utmost disappointment, I have to say that the nuclear ‎program has put us in a situation in which we are, if not vulnerable, then we are forced to ‎retreat and back down to demands by other superpowers, mainly Russia, and this is due ‎to the position we have put ourselves in by pursuing our nuclear program. We have made ‎ourselves dependant once on Russia and then on China and India in the Security Council. ‎If the nuclear crisis was a non-issue we could have defended our national rights much ‎more resolutely and strongly. Just look at the Bushehr facility, and see how Russians are ‎betraying us. For the past ten years, the Russians have tried every trick to postpone the ‎completion of the project. ‎

R: Prior to Putin’s visit to Tehran the U.S. Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice and ‎defense minister Robert Gates visited Moscow. Is it possible that Mr. Putin was carrying ‎a message for Tehran? ‎

SZ: It is possible. It is possible that Mr. Putin was carrying a very serious message for ‎Tehran: that this is the last chance. Just like the Russians carried the bad news to Saddam ‎that this is the last chance and Americans are serious, it is possible that Russia is relaying ‎a similar message to Iran, that George W. Bush is very serious to show Iran a heavy hand ‎before the upcoming presidential election in the U.S.. Even if the plan is not to hit certain ‎targets in Iran, it is possible that the third resolution is very serious and harsh; or maybe ‎Mr. Putin will tell Iran that you cannot count on us or China too much, for example, for ‎Russia to veto a U.N. Security Council resolution. ‎

R: In your opinion, what is the most dangerous concession that Iran can give Russia in ‎exchange for support in the nuclear program?‎

SZ: [Concessions in ] the Caspian Sea demarcation. Unfortunately, there is a possibility ‎that we may sell our rights in the Caspian Sea cheap to get out of the hole that we have ‎dug for ourselves with the nuclear program. In other words, it is possible that we may ‎lose a share of our territory in the Caspian Sea over the nuclear issue. ‎

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